Europe reportedly is gearing up for record crowds this summer, hiring crowd-control experts to keep museums and landmarks from getting inundated by foreign tourists whose native currencies will buy significantly more there than in the past. For U.S. travelers, Europe hasn’t been this cheap since 2003. The euro was trading for around $1.10 at the time, on its way to an all-time high of $1.60 in the spring of 2008. It’s been downhill ever since, and although the currency has rebounded from a low in March of 1.05, the rally looks doomed from a technical standpoint.

Notice in the chart that a key ‘Hidden Pivot’ support at 1.0841 was breached on the way down to the 1.0473 low. This is bearish in itself, since the support should have evinced a tradable bounce but didn’t. The damage was compounded when the futures crushed a 1.0759 low from 2003 that also should have produced a bounce. Because it didn’t, the decline from last May’s peak near 1.40 created a bearish ‘impulse leg’ on the monthly chart. This implies that when this rally sputters out, the bear market will resume in earnest. It doesn’t take a chartist to see that the plunge could go all the way to around 90 cents before picking up support from some lows at that level made between 2000 and 2002.