A few Charts to ponder for the weekend
$XAU to $Gold Chart: Price Divergence with EWO suggests near term DOWN:
10yr Treasury to Gold: This might be the path. Oh are you confused also?? EWO suggests down then up then way down??? Maybe???
$HUI to $GOLD: Complete ‘c’ down then up to start a final Wave 5?? See GDX chart analysis below….
$GOLD to Bond Ratio: Woops what’s this telling us??
GDX Daily Master Chart: I think this upside move is over but the black arrow is throwing out an alternate possibility.
GDX 2 Hr Chart: I think this tells the story. After we complete this a-b-c down (probably on Monday) then back up in a 5-wave move to target listed on GDX Daily Chart. (NOTE***** and this is an important NOTE…. If we get instead 5-waves down e.g., a-b-c-d-e then we will get a three wave corrective back up then 5 DOWN. Gold Bond Ratio Chart is worrisome)
On the more Cheery side from Armstrong Blog:
“As for the seasonality, June has often been the turning point in gold be it highs or lows. This time we should see a pop and then any decline will come in the fall. A weekly closing above 1239 should confirm the pop to the upside. The key resistance technically stands at 1309 area.” My count on GDX would seem to support Armstrong’s view.
Just a note on my charts. I use both the MACD(5,35,0) and MACD(5,10,0) for the EWO depending on which one gives me the best picture. 2Hr Charts almost always (well there are truncations!!) give me the price divergence I’m looking for to identify the start and end of a move. I love Heikin-Ashi charts. I will frequently switch back and forth to them during the trading day ESPECIALLY before making a Buy or Sell. If you are trying to count waves, I suggest using the Zig-Zag indicator on 2HR chart with Parameter 3. It will make your venture into EW saner, if that’s possible.
Great analysis and charts. Sir trek, can you provide the link for you GDX charts so that I can follow? TIA
Sorry RJ my charts are private. It would be confusing (and dangerous) to view my ramblings as I constantly update them daily and throughout the week. I don’t have a lot of faith in GDX moving up from here. From an EW perspective, we so far have a 3-wave corrective pattern that could easily drop vice completing the projected 5th wave up from here. My indicators signaled a sell on the daily chart Friday and a sell on the 2HR chart on Thursday. The Weekly chart is starting to waver although it’s still bullish. It could all come down to what the dollar is going to do. It was showing some bullish signs on Friday. Either way it’s going to take a few days for GDX to correct down before and if it decides to climb again.