Loading ...Doug: Yes, I do. I still think that intraday low of around $1,140 last November was likely the actual bottom. RE: GOLD
L: Personally, I was very encouraged then, because gold had broken below its December 2013 low, and it seemed that every pundit and blogger in the world was saying that there was nothing to stop the fall short of $1,000, or even $700. It was widely believed that breaching the prior low was the trigger that would take it much lower-but that’s not what happened. Instead, the new low was a buying signal to Russians, Chinese, Indians, and others, and gold shot right back up again.
Anyone know the track record of Doug Casey?
I don’t know his track record but there are several newsletter/blogger guys saying that November 2014 was the low for gold. Bob Moriarty at 321gold.com is saying this as well. Most of the analysts who post on his site however are saying that there is still more downside to go.
Doug Casey is a Permabull
321Gold is a Permabull Site
So that’s their track record
Perma-bears miss the whole move up.
Perma-bulls miss the whole move down.
Both end up broke.
Guess whose turn it is to be next in the barrel?
If you know anything about Elliott Wave theory, you know that a wave 2 of a five wave impulse move can retrace up to 100% of the entire wave 1 move. I think this move down in the PMs over the last few years is the wave 2 in a secular pm market. We still have waves 3,4, and 5 to go. Wave 2 is supposed to make people doubt and dismiss the entire wave 1 move and believe that new lows are on the way. Wave 3 turns everyone into true believers. That is when the public gets involved. Anyone who buys now will be richly rewarded in the future in my opinion. There will come a time when it will be prudent to sell your PMs and buy real estate in the San Francisco Bay Area for cheap. Right now there are little run down shacks out there selling for over a million bucks.
Remember that millionaire trader that uses Elliot Wave..o wait…neither do I.
EW is helpful for the larger picture; however, the “micro” counts just add confusion. I find simple trend lines and momentum indicators much more useful. Problem with EW and the many counts–the correct count is always after the fact.