From TonyJordan2014…Sums up the situation and agrees with Plunger’s scenario….
The USD might have completed a 5 wave move last Friday. Conversely the Euro & a host of other currencies look as though they might have finished a 5 in the opposite direction. Same possibility for gold & crude not to mention the commodity sector in general and even $INDU:$GOLD. I’m not suggesting the USD has topped out. In fact, I don’t think it has. But a correction looks on the cards with implications across the board. The 1820.66 low on the SPX occurred on 15 Oct. Guess what, the October low on the USD (84.53) happened on the same day before a powerful rally took it to as high as 88.32 last Friday. The correlation between the USD and INDU/SPX is not always strong, but it has been very recently. The action in gold stocks has been quite volatile in this critically oversold sector. After collapsing the previous week the $XAU/$HUI/GDX gold seniors indices made it halfway back with a move up from Wednesday’s lows measuring 12% to 13% on very large volume. Similar story with the gold juniors (GDXJ). Their rally off Wednesday’s low was 16%. Also noteworthy is the volume on GDXJ in the first week on November which was an incredible 30 times higher than the first full week in Nov. 2013. A tradeable low perhaps and we might find a Primary A marking on TC’s gold chart soon. But I don’t think it’s THE bottom in this sector for a number of reasons including a USD comeback. At the real bottom I would also expect even greater volatility. The move off the Oct. 2008 lows after gold had fallen from $1033 to $681 saw $XAU/$HUI/GDX rise 25% over a 2 day period. Now that’s a bottom!