Goldtent TA Paradise

My chart shows that WTIC is chopping in a Bull Flag while moving down into a Cycle Low (TC Low and perhaps an IC Low as well). The Blue lines show my price channel for this Intermediate Cycle.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=376375

My timing band on Crude TC Lows ranges from 36-50 days on average, so we could see another week or so of downside action (towards the lower Blue Channel support line?).

The Green line was the IC uptrend line which has broken down, signaling a move into the next IC Low. The Green line is also the flag pole for the Bull Flag. 😉

Added: I just added a 2nd chart showing the dynamics of the current WTIC Intermediate Cycle and it’s 3 shorter term Trading Cycles. Notice on the 2nd chart that after my Blue IC uptrend is broken, TC3 makes a lower high followed by lower lows. Classic Cycles behavior.

The USD has likely found a Trading Cycle High on day 18 (18-23 days low to low on average).

https://goldtadise.com/?p=376370

If so, it should break my Blue line as soon as tomorrow and start it’s decline into a TC Low. This will likely provide Gold, the tailwind needed to move out of what looks like a TC Low to me and start Trading Cycle #2.

Yesterday and today I was busy buying back some Trading Shares (AEM, NEM, AG, PAAS, EXK, NG, RIC and MUX) to go along with my core of Spock’s Rocks. 😉

I have Crude on day 22 and very likely seeking out both a TC Low and a longer term IC Low.

Normally Crude’s Trading Cycles last 36-50 days so we are still fairly early in TC3 if the normal timing band holds.

I show Gold still chopping in a Bull Flag on day 34 of Trading Cycle 1 seeking a TC Low. The normal timing band is 24-29 days so this cycle is a bit extended. The Green trend line inside my Blue Fork is my TC1 uptrend line.

The USD has broken out of consolidation on day 17 of TC2. The move by the USD may be short lived, however, as we normally see a TC Low every 18-23 days on average.

I have Gold on day 31 of Trading Cycle 1, still chopping down in a Bull Flag seeking a TC Low.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=375963

The normal timing band for a TC Low is 24-29 days so we should see a bottom soon if the normal timing band holds. The Green line inside my Fork is my Trading Cycle trend line. Normally these are tested or broken during a TC Low but since January, approximately 50% of the TC’s have not broken these lines before finding a TC Low.

Chart patterns on Silver and the Miners appear to be more bullish to me.

I have the USD on day 12 of Trading Cycle 2 out of the May low. The current uptrend is currently finding resistance at the 200sma but other resistance is dead ahead.

Here is an update from my July 7th post. I have Gold on day 29-30 and still seeking a short term TC Low, very similar to Silver.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=375624

The Miners are more interesting as much of the price declines I was expecting have been happening within the first 5-10 minutes of the past few trading days. Quick drops but someone is filling with a strong bid.

GDX chart:

Based on my last update, I show Crude chopping in a Bull Flag seeking out its next Intermediate Cycle Low near the 5-6 month timing band as I expected.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=374595

Note how price has remained fairly bullish after breaking my Blue IC trend line but It has mostly been chopping while making lower highs and lower lows. The problem I see for Crude is that its Trading Cycle typically lasts 36-50 days and I have it only on day 14 of TC3.

For the time being, I have been shorting it with SCO when Crude hits the top of my flag and taking profits at the bottom of my flag. A break to the upside of my flag will signal a new Trading Cycle and very likely a new 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle as well. A break to the downside of my flag would likely lead to a larger decline. If the normal timing band applies, we may see 4-6 more weeks of chopping unless we get a shortened cycle.

While we are still in the early stages of a new bullish looking 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle for Gold and the Miners, we appear to be starting a move into either a half cycle or Trading Cycle low for the PM complex. TC Lows, Half Cycle Lows and even the most recent Intermediate Cycle low have all been fairly mild affairs since the January bottom. The 20sma has done a nice job in providing support at Half Cycle and TC Lows and this is the only MA I show on my charts for this update.

First two charts are for GDX, my proxy for the miners.

Last two charts show my Cycle forks for Gold and Silver.

I consider UXVY a Widow maker.

That said, I just picked up some 7/15/2016 UVXY $14 Calls for .69

Limits my downside exposure here but with upside reward as some of my price channels are showing that the SPX is near resistance. 😉

Yes I took profits on Shorts on Monday near the 38% Fib retrace but I do not think that the move into the IC Low is finished just yet. I have the SPX on day 27 of TC3 and the average timing band for a TC low is 36-45 days.

That said stocks were oversold and had also hit the bottom of my Red Fork which is one of the price channels I am watching. This looks more like a half cycle low and I will short again if/when price reaches the top of my smaller Green channel. I suspect the final IC Low will more than likely hit the 50% or 62% retrace before the IC Low is in.

WTIC has broken my Blue Intermediate Cycle trend line and is seeking out a 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle low here. I have Crude early in TC3 on only day 8. Normally the Crude cycle lasts 35-50 days low to low. A break above my Red IC down trend line will signal a new Intermediate Cycle.

Based on my cycle analysis, we are on day 20 and 23 respectively for Gold and GDX of Trading Cycle 1 of a new 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle. We usually see Trading Cycle lows (some call them Daily Cycles) within a timing band of 23-29 days on average.

Since the start of the January 2016 uptrend, however, most TC Lows have been very mild with some only testing rather than breaking my Trading Cycle uptrend lines. As a hedge for my Core Positions (Spocks Rocks plus some of my own), I have a small position in JDST as of yesterday.

Bonds have been surging here as a safe haven as the stock market has been selling off. Once the SPX finds an IC Low, however, I think that Bonds will likely find a top for their current Intermediate Cycle, perhaps near the top of my price channel.

First chart is a one year daily and the second chart is a 10 year weekly.

One of the reasons I took profits on my Stock Market shorts today was the divergence I was seeing in the VIX, or fear index. With stocks continuing to sell off hard today the UVXY (VIX ETF) that I had Calls on was moving lower even as stocks were weak all day.

Now in the aftermarket, UVXY is up 10%. Hmmmm…

Just took some very tasty profits on my Stock Market shorts here as many are testing the top of my current price channels. 😉

It looks like we may get some kind of bounce here and if it looks like the Dead Cat variety, I will reload on my short positions which included: BIS, QID, SDS and SPXU plus some Calls on UVXY and some Puts on CMG.

If you review the one year charts of the PM Complex vs Stocks (SPX), I am seeing a pattern where Silver and the Miners begin to sell off along with the Stocks once the stock market sell off begins to pick up speed.

You can clearly see this in the charts during August of 2015 and Jan 2016 when stocks sold off hard. Only Gold moved up as a safe haven as its role in the base of the monetary system.

As a result, I am not adding to my Miner positions here yet as I want to see how this plays out over the next few days. I will post some charts later in the day.

If you have been paying attention to my Cycle work, you should have noticed that I have been forecasting for some time that I was expecting the next 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle Low in Stocks to take hold sometime between late June to Mid-July (I have been beating the drum on this one fairly hard).

https://goldtadise.com/?p=373810

It now appears to me that the Brexit will likely be the initial catalyst for this move into the next IC Low during the timeframe that I expected. I have the next NFP report on July 8th so perhaps we will see a final low around then. Between now and then we may see some kind of bounce but who knows.

The key issue now is will the next IC Low for stocks be a higher low or a lower low than the Jan 2016 IC Low. My chart shows the steep price down trend channels from the last three IC Lows along with a Fib retrace. Anything more than a 62% retrace here would be bearish in my books but a higher IC Low than Jan 2015 would provide some bullish context for the Bulls.

2014 Resistance Holding Gold Stocks after Brexit

I have Gold potentially in a new Intermediate Cycle and on day 15 of Trading Cycle 1. It appears that Gold is either seeking out a half Trading Cycle Low here or perhaps the TC has already topped.

TC’s find a TC Low between days 23-29 on average.

My charts show that the SPX backtested it’s breakdown below my Intermediate Cycle trend line today and failed. Price also closed below the 20ema on the daily.

I added some Mid-July Calls on UVXY early in the trading day as I am still expecting the next 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle low sometime between late June to mid-July.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=373328

The USD may only be moving into a half Trading Cycle low here but other than a Brexit vote to exit, it is hard to imagine what will bring on a significant rally here. The previous Trading Cycle was bullish but it was largely predicated on the Fed actually raising rates in June. Usually a close below the 50dma signals the start of a Trading or Daily Cycle decline.

On the way back from my Mexico cruise and there is nothing I like about any of the BioTech charts (IBB, XBI, LABU, take your pick). I started shorting the sector with BIS when it found resistance at the 150ema. I did take some nice profits early but quickly reloaded when IBB could not seem to bounce.

My charts show that BioTechs will likely lead the rest of the market into the next 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle low, which I am still expecting in the late June to Mid-July timeframe.

Greetings from Mazatlan! 😉

This morning the SPX has broken below my Intermediate Cycle uptrend line. I expect some backtesting before the drop accelerates into the next IC Low which I am expecting in late June to mid-July.

Just took some very nice profits from most of my Stock Market shorts (SPXU, BIS, QID plus Puts on SPY and Calls on UVXY).

Still expecting the final low in late June/early July but we are heading to Cabo for the day and won’t be back until after the market closes.

Shorts paid for the family cruise to Mexico more than 3 times over… 😉

Surf is heading out for some R&R over the next week on a family vacation cruise to Mexico so I will likely be making only a few posts next week and will not be watching the markets that closely.

Leaving later today for Mazatlan, Puerto Vallarta, and Cabo San Lucas for some fun in the sun. 😉

Crude has made a bullish run here but today it broke below my Trading Cycle #2 trend line which almost always signals the move into the next TC Low.

The Green lines are TC trend lines and the Blue line is Crude’s longer Intermediate Cycle trend line. The problem I see is that the Intermediate Cycle trend line and the TC2 trend line are one and the same, so this break today may also signal the top is in for this Intermediate Cycle. I took profits on the last of my Producers two days ago (BHP, STO and CPE) and added to my SCO position yesterday as well. My first SCO position was a hedge and I definitely jumped the gun but the total SCO position is almost green now.

SPX has broken my Green Trading Cycle trend line this morning, likely signaling that its shorter term TC has topped. WTIC has also broken it’s up trend line as well.

My expectations are that we will see the next 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle low in stocks sometime in the late June to Mid-July timeframe.

Silver has confirmed a new 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle and Gold is very close (closed at my IC downtrend line yesterday). The Miners (GDX) have made a very bullish move here but we have lots of gaps across the charts. They are only 4+ months from their last IC Low but are likely in a new Intermediate Cycle as well.

The USD also appears that it may have found a shorter term Trading Cycle Low this morning.

If so, perhaps some gaps will get filled and we may get another buying opportunity in a few days before the next FMOC meeting next week.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=372787