Loading ...SPX Intermediate Cycle Update
If you have been paying attention to my Cycle work, you should have noticed that I have been forecasting for some time that I was expecting the next 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle Low in Stocks to take hold sometime between late June to Mid-July (I have been beating the drum on this one fairly hard).
https://goldtadise.com/?p=373810
It now appears to me that the Brexit will likely be the initial catalyst for this move into the next IC Low during the timeframe that I expected. I have the next NFP report on July 8th so perhaps we will see a final low around then. Between now and then we may see some kind of bounce but who knows.
The key issue now is will the next IC Low for stocks be a higher low or a lower low than the Jan 2016 IC Low. My chart shows the steep price down trend channels from the last three IC Lows along with a Fib retrace. Anything more than a 62% retrace here would be bearish in my books but a higher IC Low than Jan 2015 would provide some bullish context for the Bulls.
Thanks SC. What are your USD thoughts at the moment. Simultaneous cycle low?
Hi Surf City, looking at the quarterly charts of the S&P, this looks more and more like what the quarter of July 1982 is going to look like, which plays into your intermediate cycle low quite well. In 1982, the S&P also made lows in the quarters starting July 1981, Jan 1982 and Jul 1982 before blasting off to new highs, just like in 2014 and 2015 so far.
Hi Surf City, looking at the quarterly charts of the S&P, this looks more and more like what the quarter of July 1982 is going to look like, which plays into your intermediate cycle low quite well. In 1982, the S&P also made lows in the quarters starting July 1981, Jan 1982 and Jul 1982 before blasting off to new highs, just like in 2014 and 2015 so far.
p.s. this means your 5 to 6 month cycle lows would have worked back then as well!