Goldtent TA Paradise

Which way will depend on Auntie J?

Cycles attempt to find Cycle Lows using “Time” within a timing band (High’s have no real timing band and other TA must be used). That said, Cycle Turns often hinge on some news event (e.g. BREXIT triggered a 5 month low in Stocks and Gold surged out of a Low).

Tomorrow, Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole will likely be such an event (sadly our markets seem so addicted to QE and easy money that every FMOC meeting or FED speech seems to create big turns).

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/25/there-are-risks-for-markets-and-yellen-at-jackson-hole.html

Stocks are in their timing band to find a short term Trading Cycle (TC) low but have been chopping sideways waiting to see what Janet might be Yellen. If the market likes her speech, it may well skip this TC Low and surge higher.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=379570

The USD was moving into a TC Low but has paused, waiting for… what else?

https://goldtadise.com/?p=379591

Gold and the Miners are in their timing band to find a short term TC Low.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=379448

Oil has paused from its recent uptrend out of a 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle (IC) Low..

https://goldtadise.com/?p=379585

I have the USD wedging to a decision point. Which way it breaks will give a clue on the overall direction it will take on its longer 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle.

Some analysts see a H&S topping pattern forming. While that is possible perhaps, I show Crude backtesting its breakout above my IC Low down trend line. This Bull Flag backtest looks bullish to me.

SPX on day 42 and deep into its timing band to find a short term Trading Cycle Low.

Based on my weekend post, I was expecting a move into a short term Trading Cycle low this week but I was not expecting it to be this nasty.

I have stopped trying to trade around the short term TC Lows as, up until now, they have been quite mild. I have been focusing on the longer 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle (next IC Low should be in the Oct/Nov timeframe so we will see a bounce soon).

Markets are tricky and now I will pay more attention to the shorter term TC Lows as well. Hang on and don’t sell is my advice as a TC Low or DCL should be close.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=379008

I show that GDX has had a failed Trading Cycle today (i.e. a lower TC Low). It may also be backtesting its long term breakout. If so, the trend line comes in near the 30ema on the weekly.

We may see a short term pullback but it sure looks like NatGas and UNG have found a 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low. If so, a bullish pattern is taking shape.

Are in the news again…

http://philosophyofmetrics.com/are-emerging-markets-about-to-switch-us-treasuries-for-sdr-bonds-freepom/

WTIC Crude and USO are bouncing right were I would have expected.

Bought some Coffee (JO) this morning to go with my Sugar (SGG). Sure looks to me like Coffee has found its 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low and this is where I prefer to buy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHk7P5HuGJo

If the the USD’s 3 Year Cycle has topped (and perhaps it’s 15 year as well), then we would expect that other commodities will start to emerge from their Bear Market lows. Gold and Silver have led the way with Oil following later this Spring but what about other soft commodities?

Sugar and Soybeans (check) ~ see 1st two charts.

For Corn (CORN) and Wheat (WEAT), I show them still in Stage 4 Bear so the jury is still out. I do show that both recently made IC Lows, however, and I have small starter positions as I believe that the Bear lows may be in but that is still to be determined.

Coco (NIB) is still basing but is also part of my portfolio:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=378493

This update will focus on the Miners (GDX is my proxy) both from a shorter term Trading Cycle (TC) and the Longer term Intermediate Cycle (IC). In my first chart, I have GDX entering it timing band to start seeking a TC Low on day 19 after having found a TC High on day 14. The chart also starts at the last IC low for Gold and the Miners in late May, with the Miners finding an IC high (so far) just a bit shy of 3 months. I personally don’t want to see the TC Low move below the 62% fib level on my chart but a move down to my blue trend line would not be the end of the world.

In my second chart, I show how during the last IC they topped near 3.5 months an moved into an IC low over the next 3 weeks. The chart also shows two possible scenarios for the move into the next IC Low which will likely be in the October timeframe based on Time.

Some call this short term cycle a Daily Cycle but I call it a Trading Cycle. On average, we see a TC Low every 36-45 days (Day 37 now). If price is done backtesting its breakdown from my Blue line, the move to the downside should start to get underway.

My charts show the USD made a bearish breach of it’s Intermediate Cycle Uptrend today, signaling its move into its next IC Low. This is week 15 and the normal timing band for USD IC Lows is 18-24 weeks. That said, the last USD Intermediate Cycle lasted 36 weeks low to low and sometimes long cycles are followed by short ones.

Any bounce should result in a lower high until the IC Low is in. Breaking my Red downtrend line will signal that the IC Low is in and a new Intermediate Cycle has started. My first chart is a close up daily of the past 5 months and my second chart is a Weekly showing the price action over the past two IC’s.

Here are links to my last two posts on the USD for reference:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=378475

https://goldtadise.com/?p=378298

If you don’t trade Futures, SOYB is a way to get in on the action in Beans as I think the Bear Market has ended for them. My first chart is a close up of the past 6 months and the second is a 3 year view that shows where Beans found support in early August in what I believe was an IC Low right near 5 months.

Here comes the intra-day reversal I was expecting… 😉

https://goldtadise.com/?p=378539

The norm over the past few days is for PM’s to open strong and then fade as the day moves along.

Today, I am looking for the opposite where they open down and then steadily move up during the day.

Not saying this is what is going to happen but it is what I am looking for.

Coco (NIB) is bouncing nicely out of its recent IC Low. I picked up a starter early last week and added Friday and again today.

To a decision point. The Bollinger Bands are tight, likely signaling a big move is coming. If the USD moves in the direction I expect, my bet that the move is up.

My colleague, Norvast also has Gann Low for Gold today/tomorrow so lets see what tomorrow brings. 😉

Unless my Cycle timing counts are wrong, it sure looks to me like the USD just had a Failed Trading Cycle on day 10 (i.e. USD just made a lower low than the last TC Low ~ see my small green line break). This usually indicates that it’s longer 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle has topped as well just short of 3 months. We may bounce a bit but the final TC Low, on average, is usually between days 18-24.

One caveat, is the Fractal on the chart out of the late May IC Low. The first TC was 36 days into the TC Low before Brexit.

The current Fractal is also around 36 days, and while it looks very similar, having two trading cycles last this long outside of the normal timing band is very rare.

At long term resistance or perhaps just a pause into a Trading Cycle low before a retest of this long term line.

Charts say it all… 😉

It’s break below my Trading Cycle Uptrend line.

I have WTIC Crude most likely starting a new Intermediate Cycle here. To confirm, it needs to break above my Red IC Downtrend line. Before it does that, however, it may move back down a bit to confirm support at my lower Blue Fork line.

We are only 2+ months into the Intermediate Cycle that started in late May. Too early for a top, IMO.

Added: Some longer term charts to provide some additional prospective on the overhead resistance we are encountering. Big move ahead if we can break through.

It is coming…. are you prepared?

Weekend reading perhaps but it Solves a lot of the Banker’s problems. Hard to have a Bank Run with out cash. And if there is no physical cash you can’t keep it under your mattress or in a safe. Rather, your “Digital Cash” needs to be in a Digital Bank account where they can charge you negative interest…

Got any Gold? 😉

Post is from another site and is in first comment so bookmark for weekend reading.