Goldtent TA Paradise

Bouncing hard right where Eagle had shown support. Green Fork is a very speculative channel into the next Trading Cycle Low but my red downtrend should provide some resistance.

Second chart is on GDX which I have on day 16 and the normal timing band for a TC Low is 20-29 days.

Added: I got stopped out of my previous attempt when the DUST price dropped below my previous green fork but I have new positions now between $34.50 and $35.33 The attached link also shows the bigger channel that Eagle highlighted (i.e. lower blue line in attached link is support for now).

https://goldtadise.com/?p=385269

Bearish price action in crude as it has broken its yearly uptrend line (1st Chart).

First chart shows the longer Yearly Cycle expectations and the second chart shows the Price action for the current Intermediate Cycle. My charts do not include today’s drop.

The USD has found a near term Trading Cycle top and is seeking out is next TC Low. My cycle counts on the USD’s longer Intermediate Cycle are somewhat clouded, but if the USD did have an IC Low back in mid-August (one of my possible IC counts), then it’s bullish run may not be done here.

Bullish action today in GDX, with a new high on day 15 of this current Trading Cycle. Price has found resistance, however, at an interesting spot for now.

I still show a Bear Flag formation for now but breaking my two red resistance lines will also invalidate the Bear Flag, which would be bullish.

Stocks are still on track for their Yearly Cycle Low in the mid-November timeframe.

Second chart is a closeup showing my cycle count and how price has broken my blue IC uptrend which confirms that the SPX is now seeking out its next 5-6 month IC Low.

Previous post:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=385174

From McClellan. Seems he also thinks that Golds YCL is getting close. FWIW, I still think we have one more Trading Cycle lower low, perhaps just after the US Election on November 8th.

The whole PM complex is still chopping in a Bear Fag and Time is becoming an issue now. Call it a gut feel but I think that the Election will be the catalyst to bounce Gold out of its YCL and propel Stock down into it’s YCL, perhaps in the mid-November timeframe.

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/golds_13-1_2_month_cycle_low/

Time is becoming more of an issue for Gold in this current Trading Cycle. I show Gold and the Miners still chopping in Bear Flags with Gold on day 15 which I do not find to be bullish price action.

On the news break I posted below, Gold moved towards to top of my Bear Flag and DUST tested my lower green Fork were I just picked up a hedge position for the next week or so.

FBI reopens Clinton Email investigation…

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-28/fbi-is-re-opening-clinton-e-mail-investigation-chaffetz-says

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-28/fbi-said-reopen-probe-hillary-clinton-emails

BOOYAH!!! Any followers?

CLVLY up 22% today on no news that I can find. I suspect an FDA approval must be underway.

Previous Posts:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=384737

https://goldtadise.com/?p=381686

https://goldtadise.com/?p=380987

SPX is being very stubborn but most SPX IC Lows tend to be rather rapid affairs that last 1-2 weeks. 2100 SPX would be the minimum level decline I would expect but YCLs tend to be a bit more severe than normal ICLs. Witness the Gold YCL that still may be underway.

Previous SPX post:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=384394

Here is an update on the Yen, which has been moving into its Yearly Cycle Low. I have been shorting the Yen with YCS since late September now and it has been a sweet trade for those who may have followed me. 😉

Previous Yen and YCS Posts:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=383864

https://goldtadise.com/?p=382241

BTW, the Yen is an important currency with respect to Gold and that is one reason I watch it closely. It peaked back in 2011 along with Gold and started a furious uptrend in early 2016 along with Gold. My research on the “Yen Carry Trade” indicates that all the big banks, since 2011, have been massively borrowing the Yen at zero interest and using the funds to short the Gold and the rest of the PM Complex….

The Yen rising early in 2016, along with Gold, required the banks to unwind their Yen Carry Trades in a massive short squeeze. This unwind also limited the funds they had available to short Gold.

It would appear that the Yen Carry trade is now back in vogue until perhaps the Yen’s YCL is behind us.

For Fully. HUI and XAU channels appear to be the same for now and nothing has broken down yet.

Price still chopping in a Bear Flag but Time is becoming a factor.

My cycle work shows that Natty Gas may have found a short term Trading or Daily Cycle low today on day 17. I also show, however, that the last Trading Cycle just failed (i.e. made a lower low than the last TC Low).

As this usually signals the longer 5 month Intermediate Cycle has topped with the final IC low perhaps still 3 months away. I plan to short the next bounce into the next TC high on or before day 9.

Time is now becoming an issue now with Gold’s most recent Trading or Daily Cycle.

Regardless of weakness in the USD, Gold was rejected near the top of its Bear Flag from yesterdays move.

So far it appears to be heading down to test the lower boundary of my flag.

Much still depends on which way price breaks out of the Bear Flag but the Price movement inside the Flag is not bullish especially with respect to the Time of this Daily Cycle.

I have Gold on day 13 now and it is running out of Time, IMO and needs to get a move on or we will likely see another failed Daily Cycle into a final YCL.

Added: GDX chart ~ still in Bear Flag limbo for now…

Previous Post:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=384596

Will a Rising US Dollar Crush Gold’s Fledgling Bull?

Still in a very nice uptrend and getting some nice volume today. Took profits in Mid-Sept on their earning release (sold the news) and bought back all my positions and more after the post earnings Bull Flag played out in late September.

This post will cover Gold, Silver and the Miners (GDX). Norvast of Gann and I (of Bressert Cycles) had collaborated on forecasting a Trading or Daily Cycle Low (DCL) and had identified Oct 10th as a possibility here:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=382876

https://goldtadise.com/?p=383867

Looks like the DCL was actually on Friday Oct 7th so close enough. This might also be the longer 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle low (ICL) as well but the Jury is still out on that one. Because it might be an ICL, I have taken profits on my hedges and reloaded many of my Trading Positions over the past two weeks but I have them on a short leash until price makes a more impulsive bullish move up.

The first step for me would be for price to break out of the current Bear Flag patterns I am seeing in Gold, Silver and GDX. So far, only GDX has broken my green TC down trend line to confirm a new Trading Cycle. My expectations are that Gold will do so next week. If Gold does so, GDX should fill its gap. The bigger test for the PM Complex are the red Intermediate Cycle down trend lines.

Here is quick chart showing that Gold needs to break to the upside of its current Bear Flag, along with a Freebie from LikesMoney on Gold.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2016/10/20/golden-reminder/

Added a second chart which provides a closeup. I find it rather fascinating how the Price on Gold today ranged precisely between my Green support and resistance from the confluence of my Blue channel and my TC down trend line… 😉

Close up and Yearly Cycle views.

Previous Updates:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=383939

https://goldtadise.com/?p=383734

https://goldtadise.com/?p=383400

I have Gold on day 8 of a new Trading Cycle and the Miners (GDX) on day 6.

More upside price action is required to confirm that the longer term Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) is in as well. If GDX cannot move past my second IC down trend line then we may see a lower low in the mid-November timeframe.

If the IC Low is still ahead in mid-November, then the pattern we would most likely see would be for Gold to top and start rolling over between day 9-12 (now on day 8 by my count).

Added: Chart from a few days ago showing we found a TC3 or TC4 Low last Friday (depending on how your count TC1). So this is either TC1 of a new Intermediate Cycle or we are in TC4 or TC5 of the old IC and still looking for a YCL.

Previous update:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=383867

When will Gold find its next 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL)? That is the key question. Certainly most TA indicators show oversold, but I have stated repeatedly that based on Time, we may see one one more Trading Cycle Low into mid-November.

Norvast and I had identified Monday, Oct 10 as a potential turn date. It appears to me that this will likely be a short term TC Low but perhaps not the longer IC Low most are looking for. Time will Tell.

Gold’s price action today was rather uninspiring given that the USD may have found a short term top. That uninspiring price action has been fairly constant since Gold found it’s Intermediate Cycle top back in early July. My 1st chart below shows that every uptrend since then has topped out after 6 days or less. My second chart shows some of my key cycle trend lines. Blue and Red are Cycle uptrend and down trend respectively and the smaller Green lines show the last two Trading Cycle uptrends.

Previous update:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=383361

I last posted on the YEN back on Sept 24th, where I mentioned that it appeared to be getting ready to move into its YCL and that I was shorting it with YCS.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=382241

My updated chart shows that it has clearly broken its Yearly Cycle uptrend and is now moving into its YCL which I expect in the later part of Oct but it could stretch into Nov so we will need to watch the charts.

Been busy this morning. Prior to Oil and NatGas inventories this morning, I went long NatGas with BIOL and UNG based on my Cycle work (half cycle low) and shorted WTIC Crude with SCO, based in part on Randy’s Wolf Wave posted yesterday here:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=383728

Also added to my SPXU positions this morning at the 1st pullback.

The SPX current Trading Cycle just made a Lower Low than the previous TC Low on Sept 12th. A TC Failure is one of the “markers” that confirms the move into the longer Intermediate Cycle Low which I expect in the November timeframe.

Was going through my chart library and found a speculative chart from back on Sept 2nd showing potential topping action in the SPX’s Intermediate Cycle back in August.

I never got around to posting this chart back then so here is my “blast from the past” along with my second chart, which is an update from tonight. 😉

Big bullish move today. I have been looking for a short term Trading Cycle top so we may have a short term double top here but the dollar looks stronger than I expected.

Support and Resistance…