Goldtent TA Paradise

Here is a BitCoin / Crypto update. Looks like the final flush down that I have been expecting is now underway.

https://surfcity.co/2018/11/14/cryptos-are-crashing-2/

5 Things That Precede Major Bottoms in Gold

Both are at a cycle inflection point based on my work.  Enjoy 😉

https://surfcity.co/2018/11/02/gold-usd-cycles-update-6/

Gold Stocks are Not Close to Bottom

Posted within yesterday’s mid-week update.

https://surfcity.co

Did the top of my Blue Fork price channel really provide resistance and turn the USD back down? What I do know is that price often does move in parallel price channels and that is why I track them in my work.

A close today below 96.10 will likely signal a short term top in the USD. Also, a lower low than mid-October would likely be bearish longer term. Time will Tell.

It sure looks like it to me based on my Time & Price Cycle work.

https://surfcity.co/2018/10/31/spx-major-low-forming/

Not at first though but eventually.

Stronger Dollar is Bullish Catalyst for Gold

Relative to the stock market, gold stocks have never been cheaper.

Checking Gold Stocks Valuations

Nice 10% + yield for a solid IRA dividend play, IMO.

https://surfcity.co/2018/10/19/ira-dividend-play/

My weekend report signaled that the Marijuana Stock sector was in my timing band to find a short term low (TCL #1) out of a more significant 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) in mid-August.

I nibbled at starters on CGC & MJ on Friday in my personal account and added portfolio positions near the open today.

Added: CGC closed up over 14% today to a new ATH on solid volume.

https://surfcity.co/2018/10/15/trade-alert-362/

Here is my weekend update on Energy Cycles (Crude Oil, NatGas & Uranium).  

Cycle updates on later this weekend on: Gold & USD, BitCoin & GBTC, Stocks & Bonds, and Marijuana Stocks. Enjoy. 😉

https://surfcity.co/2018/10/13/energy-cycles-crude-oil-natgas-uranium-23/

Enjoy!

https://surfcity.co/2018/10/11/surfs-up-106/

A Bottom in Gold but not THE Bottom

Gold confirming a new short term Trading Cycle (now on Day 3) and more importantly, a higher low, should confirm that August hosted Gold’s longer Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL). Based on the COT reports, we have lots of fuel for the start of what should be an impulsive rally.

Some posts on my thinking:

https://surfcity.co/2018/10/02/gold-update-6/

https://surfcity.co/2018/09/30/gold-usd-cycle-update-15/

Lots of chatter about a stock market crash this Fall so here is my 2 cents.

https://surfcity.co/2018/09/29/stock-market-top/

Gold Stocks Remain in Downtrend but Uranium Stocks on the Cusp of New Bull Market

Marijuana Stocks are surging now but did you manage to buy near the lows?

Here is a chart on MJ and my two trade alerts on Canopy (CGC) from back in Mid-August. Prices could surge higher but the current uptrend slope is quite steep right now to be maintained longer term so I am expecting a short term Trading Cycle high soon.

https://surfcity.co/2018/08/16/trade-alert-328/

https://surfcity.co/2018/08/17/trade-alert-331/

Gold Miners Setting Up for Big Rally

Surf’s exceptions are that a major Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) is likely underway.

https://surfcity.co/2018/09/06/cryptos-are-crashing/

At least that is the way I see it.

https://surfcity.co/2018/09/06/surfs-wrap-up-25/

INSY has been a long term buy & hold in my portfolio and actually uses THC, the active ingredient in Marijuana in many of its products to develop pharmaceutical cannabinoids.

Opened up 20% and now up over 30% on the day on an FDA approval on over 10x daily volume thus far. “Too the Moon Alice.”

https://surfcity.co/2018/08/30/pharma-with-marijuana/

Gold Stocks Crash! Now What?

Coming into the week they were not oversold. A few more days of selling and an extreme will be reached.

https://thedailygold.com/gold-stocks-are-not-too-oversold-yet/

The US dollar BOINK point. Great name by the way, guys. Fascinating chartology too.

Three parts: The elegant $ fractal chart / Subtle differences 1999 vs 2018 / Other symmetry of gold and dollar moves in past 20 years.

The elegant chart: Thinking again of Rambus/FGC’s charts on the dollar fractal and the bounce labelled “BOINK,” I re-jigged a chart from Rambus and included the long term falling wedge downtrend line in blue to show this.

Something that fascinates me: will the US dollar ever go below that blue line again?

The goldtadise article by FGC with the similar chart is here:

THE MOST INTERESTING CHART ON THE PLANET

Here is that chart. I added the red line at the bottom to ask the question: is it a genuine falling wedge and if so does it have a target of 160? The fractal scenario with the half way structure would suggest a target in the 110-120 range, perhaps:

Now, the subtle differences between the two scenarios (1999 and 2018):

1. The first occasion (in 1999) the bounce was off the 11-year downtrend line.
2. The second occasion (2018) the bounce was not from the 11-year downtrend. The breakout never returned to that line. The BOINK bounce was from the larger degree 33 year downtrend line from the dollar top at 160 in 1985. Does this suggest a possible eventual  move of larger degree than the move during 1999-2001?
3. There is another subtle difference in the dollar lows in each cycle. In 1992 the low came on peak 5 and in 2008 it came on peak 3 out of the 7 labelled in each case in black and red respectively on the lower chart. On the top chart the peak numbers were 3 in 1992 and 2 in 2008. The bottom came a bit earlier in the last $ bear cycle.

Other points:

It’s been mentioned that “the time for the dollar bull has run out” (2008-2016)  – but:
1. These dollar bulls vary somewhat in duration and price magnitude.
2. The first bull on these charts was from 1992 to 2001 (9 years, not 7.5 or 8). Still, that would suggest a 2017 top this time around (2008-2017) but if it varies, maybe not.
3. The dollar bull previous to these two was from around 1979-1985 (6 years only) and was the most aggressive by far, topping at USDX 160.
4. The last dollar bear had what looks like a “genuine” re-test of the 2008 low in 2011 on the USA debt ceiling crisis, almost a double bottom. My little brain just tickles with the thought that this is somehow important. Maybe one could consider a 9-year bull market from 2011 instead, which would run to 2020 at the outside, plenty of time for a good upmove to a higher $ top.

I’m looking for measured moves on these charts and am not sure where if it all they would come from. Any ideas?

Parting thought if you got this far!

There is another piece of elegant symmetry between gold and the US dollar:

Turn of the Century/Millennium:
You can see clearly from the charts that the dollar had a good upmove from 1999-2001
Meanwhile gold already made its low in 1999 and re-tested the low in early 2001 and HELD a higher low.
Then followed the gold bull market and the $ bear market

Fast forward to 2008:
Gold had a good upmove from 2008-2011 ($1025 peak in 2008, crash to $680 and zoom up to $1920 in 2011)
Meanwhile, the US dollar had already made its low in 2008 (March, similar time to the intermediate gold high of $1025).
The US dollar re-tested its low in 2011 at the same time as gold hit its all time high of $1920 and the dollar HELD and made a higher low.
Then followed the dollar bull market and the gold bear market.

Surely both of those were gorgeous non-confirmations signalling a major change?

We have had a lower level non-confirmation since 2015.

2017 saw a higher high in the dollar compared to 2015 but not a lower low in gold since late 2015. That is perhaps something for the gold bulls to hold onto for dear life. I don’t know if this is important because we don’t have really convincing evidence of a top in the dollar yet … do we? Or a bottom in gold.

Well not really as they are still in major crash mode but anything that can move up in value from $250 to near $20,000 in a two year period needs to be followed, IMO. I do have a Price & Time target for the next Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) but this post provides a deeper dive into the Crypto space and perhaps its longer term implications for Gold & PM’s if Crypto’s make an aggressive move higher out of their next ICL.

There is lots of conflicting information on the Web regarding Central Banks and Cryptos but based on my research, I believe BitCoin & other Crypto’s are potentially the creature of Central Banks. Even if they are not, it is clear to me that many CB’s are exploring blockchain technology for its future potential within a more modern monetary system.

https://surfcity.co/2018/08/11/crypto-fever/

Precious Metals Monthly Charts

Surf City thinks so.

https://surfcity.co/2018/08/01/bitcoin-gbtc-update-17/

Enjoy…

https://surfcity.co/2018/07/27/stock-market-topping/

Gold Stocks Testing Last Ditch Support