Goldtent TA Paradise

Is silver about to surge again ? A move above $22.72 could lead to another rapid rally

Big move after hours. Up around 15%…

Sounds like one of those clickbait headlines, lol. Anyway, here’s the chart…

The world is going to hell in a handcart, but every cloud has a silver lining. Here’s my forecast for the next few years…

Looks eerily similar to the silver chart from a few weeks ago…

As silver passes $23…

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deutsche-banks-top-credit-strategist-makes-stunning-admission-i-am-gold-bug-fiat-money

I’ve been there – in the last gold bull market from 2000-2011. The biggest mistake I made was trying to be too clever. Exiting a young PM bull market, to try and take advantage of the inevitable corrections can leave you caught by rapid price reversals, where you end up buying back your position at a higher price. So what to do ?

This coming correction isn’t easy. We all know it’s coming, and I think it could be of the order of $200-$300 drop in gold. Short, but sharp. But will we turn down at $1890, $1950, $2000 or maybe even more ? The best guide I can suggest is little more than a rule of thumb – how far stretched we are above the supporting moving average (I say ‘supporting’, because the appropriate moving average which is supporting price, alters as we progress through the bull market). Roughly 25-30% is often about it, but it can stretch to nearer 50%. That would suggest somewhere near $2000. Many of my technical charts are targeting somewhere near $1950, which ties in pretty well, allowing for an ‘overshoot’.

If you’re unsure, then remember we are in a long-term bull market. The GSR has a long way to fall – suggesting silver will out-perform for a long time yet. Many silver miners, like the one below, have literally only just begun their bull markets, and will rise by 100%, 200%, 300%. Long story short, you can buy, hold and add on weakness – safe in the knowledge that every 10% or 20% correction will be wiped out as the bull matures. Keep a core of your ‘top picks’ and maybe trade a few others. That would be my advice, for what it’s worth.

I’m going to book some profits in the next couple of days. But it’s important to view individual charts to avoid ending up chasing a higher price. This is one that is likely to see a pretty shallow correction – not really worth the risk of trying to trade. Instead, I’ll add when that gap gets filled.

This was another one of the silver miners I bought when I rebalanced my portfolio from gold miners to silver miners (when the GSR broke support). It’s quadrupled since the March lows. Pretty amazing.

CCO/CCJ – Using Cameco as a proxy for the sector, it looks very bullish. A move through $17 resistance in the next few weeks would be incredibly bullish for Uranium miners.

Sliced through the 85 support line. Could bounce back up of course, but if not, there’s not a lot to stop us dropping to 74, resulting in a continued PM surge and silver out-performance.

…Gold will need to get over the next hurdle (which is approaching fast)

As long as the breakout of the red zone holds, $26 is in our sights.

Looking at some very solid gains ahead

Another $100 maybe. The rising moving average will coincide with the supporting arc, to give support somewhere near $1700.

The huge gains just keep on coming. Hard to believe that we’ve only just broken out, with so much further to go in coming days/weeks/months/years.

Up another 18% today. Yet another example of trade the chart, not what your bias tells you to believe.

I’m taking my profits off the table and leaving my original investment in, as I can see more upside here.

Bullish pennant and bull cross on the stocharstic, breakout in progress. This all means that there is now a 90% probability that we are on our way to $15,000 (that’s just the first target).

This has been coming for a while, but the reliable ‘arc’ basing formation has given us plenty of warning. Declining resistance is behind us. Next up – $21. I think we are likely to pass through that and move into the mid to upper $20’s before this particular move is over (in conjunction with the gold spike well above $1900). A re-test of $21 is quite possible after that.

Needless to say, the silver miners (especially the juniors) are going to see huge gains. I do mean huge.

The stochastic indicator is very close to a bullish cross now. The breakout looks highly likely to be in an upwards direction (and very soon).

A close above $1825 would suggest to me that a spike upwards is very likely. At that point we would be very stretched, making a return to support highly likely. That would imply a $300 drop. That would make this a great opportunity for the traders amongst us.

Which way ? Up I think…

This opens up the high probability of a 90% move in a few weeks.

A very long term breakout in progress…

Edit – Title corrected

Bear trap and gap up…

I hope everyone jumped aboard the silver train when the GSR broke down in May. If you did, your portfolio has risen much faster than if you’d left your money in gold miners.

Two charts. The first is just for fun really, but the second one is a more serious look at what’s happening right now.