Goldtent TA Paradise

After acknowledging the ‘worst case’ scenario, this is still what I’m fully expecting to see…

Here’s a very bullish, long term pennant. If $1180 gives way, we’re targeting $900. Despite that, it is a bullish chart pattern. It’s not what I’m expecting, but it would be short-sighted of me not to share it. Forewarned is forearmed.

Smaller wedge broken ? Maybe not. Perhaps we’re just building it out still – old zone of support/resistance coming up. Two quiet trading days, so who knows, maybe we slice through that. The much larger wedge would then come into play. I’ve put my thoughts on the following 3 charts. Hope you find them useful.

Here are a couple of charts 2001-2011 showing how, in a bull, the market rises and a pennant/bull flag forms as price retreats. I’ve just put in the top (resistance) line of the main examples. MACD is giving the clue that overall trend is up. each line breaks to the upside because all it is really doing is temporarily containing price. The momentum and energy in the market is UP.  2008 was a big worry – bullish pennant, but rapidly falling MACD etc. Worldwide monetary policy after the crash turned it around though.

The peak in 2011 came from a pennant that looked bullish, with the upper resistance line being put in first, but MACD was declining and by late 2012/early 2013 the big money shifted to the stock markets as it became clear the Fed ‘had everyones back’. Gold plummeted. The next pennant started bearishly, with the first point of support formed before the first point of resistance, so this was destined to resolve DOWNWARDS. That formed the final late 2015 bottom and bearish first point of support for the next pennant. The following rally peaked and put in it’s (red) overhead resistance. This makes it a bearish pennant and it did indeed resolve DOWNWARDS.

Now, that same high from last year is the first point in our current pennant, with the lower support line forming later. This implies the energy of the market that is being contained is wanting to push us upwards. In other words, we’re seeing a trend change. Also, we have a slowly uptrending MACD.

Thats’s the theory. Now lets see if it works.

Edit: Missing sentence added above.

Watch that bottom support line. It’s very, very important.

The GDX wedge resolves sooner than gold.

If the support on either of these fails, put your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye…

Thanks to Optional for reminding me. I first posted this in May, just after the breakout. It’s looking like the breakout is the real deal. If so, we may have another piece of evidence supporting the gold bull thesis. I’ll put the cycle chart up again (apologies for not being able to credit the original poster, I forgot who it was). It may seem bleak at the moment, and we may even drop another $60 dollars or so, but I really do think that there is a lot of chart evidence to say that we could be getting close to a really big and meaningful move in the PM markets. If the bottom rail of the very long term triangle/pennant gives way, all bets are off. Unless that happens, we’re on course for an amazing opportunity.

It’s worth recalling that whether a pennant/wedge/triangle is likely to be bullish or bearish depends on how you form it in the first place. Do you hit the upper or lower rail first ? Another way of looking at it – is the ‘energy’ being contained, part of an up move, or part of a down move ? Here is a diagram showing you the possible configurations…

Rather than focusing on the last year or two, I decided to ‘zoom out’ a bit and look at the big picture. If this happens to be right (and it may well not), we are looking at a massive pause in a huge bull market move, with enormous potential being contained withing a BULL pennant. This big pennant closes up around the end of January 2018, so we’ll know soon. Here’s the chart…

A couple of charts showing recent Dollar and HUI action. With some support at HUI 160, could we see an ‘around the apex’ move after a false break below the wedge ? Interesting times.

GDX is going to break one way or the other. Very soon.

Hello happy Goldtenters. This is how I see things right now. I could be wrong, but…

With COTs favourable and many of the indicators having bottomed (or bottoming), I’m viewing this as ‘tree shaking’ ahead of a big UP move. $1230 needs to hold though, and we’d have a bullish higher low, and a great set up for a strong rally. I could be wrong though 😉

For those who follow such things, the Bradley Siderograph indicated a ‘100/100 power’ for a directional turn on June 21st. We do seem to have that turn now…

I’ve posted this a couple of times before, but it’s always good to have a reminder…

The HUI, having made what appears to be a false break below the bottom rail, is now very close to completing a move that is nearly identical to the illustration above…

So that’s my HUI target, 340. I could be wrong, but it’s looking good so far. Happy trading, as they say 😉

As a reminder, here’s my chart from 4 days ago…

And here are my latest thoughts…

Of course, I could be wrong, but that’s how I see it right now 🙂

I’m not really prone to making bold predictions, but I really do think the odds are in favour of a significant rally developing here. Sentiment seems pretty bearish – that’s good. Much more important though – we’re just reaching an important support level and we’ve seen a bit of a sell-off after the recent rate hike. This knee-jerk reaction happened at the last 3 hikes. What happened every time ? You guessed it… a good rally. This chart says it all, and I’m pretty sure it’ll be the same this time, with a possible breakout of the wedge. If I’m wrong, it’ll be $1140 or less, but I’d say I’m 75% certain we’re going up, not down.

On the move today. Up over 20% (this quote wrongly says 18%). Doesn’t even register on the long term view.

Dipped my toes in the crypto pool about a week ago. I used the coinbase app. It cost me about 5% to buy them (bitcoin, litecoin and etherium). They’re all up but etherium has given me a 100% return in a few days. Talk about volatile !

…as Matthew reminded me in my earlier post. I have posted this longer term chart before, but you know what it’s like, you get distracted. He quite rightly pointed out that having broken out (just), we’re not quite, decisively back in the wedge yet. I’m grasping at straws here, but if we can hold $1265 we might be ok. If not, this longer term chart says that $1135 could be our next stop. Yikes.

Oh dear, here we go again. Unless this reverses before the close, I’m going to be quite concerned. Many of the indicators have now turned down. $1240 HAS to hold. That is THE line in the sand for me.

On closer inspection, this could just be a backtest of the breakout. It looks (on my chart at least) like the drop back into the dreaded wedge is somewhere around $1274-$1275. As long as that holds, we could see a strong upside move. We all know what it means if it doesn’t. Nice to have some excitement for a change 🙂

Not good at all. Back below $1280. Very very bad.

See article in previous post by Alex. Here’s where we are now…

I doubted it would happen on this attempt. It may be the continuing weakening dollar/strong yen and events in the Middle East (Qatar), but whatever it is, gold has broken out of it’s bullish symmetrical triangle. Three scenarios going forwards ….

1. ) False breakout, and we sink back into the triangle – very bearish
2. ) Return for a backtest of the breakout (maybe after temporary resistance at $1300), then up and away – very bullish
3. ) Up and away with no looking back – very bullish.

Some charts to ponder…

And a reminder of that cycle chart that someone posted a while back (sorry I can’t remember who)

So far, so good.

Right on upper resistance. It’s as clear as day – either up and out on Monday or some serious pain ahead. The crappy performance of the miners would suggest a big drop is ahead. Maybe one last beating ?

Well, I’ll say it again, Graddhy nailed it with his dollar prediction. 97 just gave way, and gold is reacting (the miners not so much, yet). At some point, this dollar ‘weakness’ is probably going to give gold the push it needs, yes, I know gold is more closely tied to the Yen, but even so…

I’m also wondering how much the PMs and associated stocks are suffering as money pours into crypto-currencies. I made my first (small) purchases a couple of days ago. I just wanted to see how easy or difficult it is. Took about 30 minutes. Up over 10% on Etherium already. I still don’t really trust it though.

As I said, dollar dropping, gold rising modestly. Here’s a couple of charts…

Something just gave gold a tickle…

 

My confidence that we’d get through the moving averages was well placed. As stated in my earlier post, I think we may lose momentum by the time we get to the $1280 region. Unless we get even more sh1t hitting the fan. That upper rail is really all that matters now.

As per Graddhys excellent analysis. The dollar seems to be in trouble…