Goldtent TA Paradise

Maybe, maybe not, but here’s a possibility…

Down to between $1240 and $1250, then blast out and above $1400. Looks highly likely to me.

Maybe Surf and others can give their views, but I’m wondering if that was golds ICL. Credit to @TraderGab on Twitter, for spotting the new channel (I’d like to think I would’ve stuck some lines on and found it eventually, lol). No doubt other are onto it as well. It does give us a nice, clean up trending channel, with parallel lines. The interesting part is that it carries us up into overhead resistance imminently, supported by some very well positioned indicators. Look at the MACD curling up – exactly what you want to see if we’re going to make a charge through resistance. This is starting to get very interesting again.

Great chart from Twitter

The definition of a bear market, at it’s simplest – lower highs and lower lows. In other words – an ongoing down trend. Since the 1970’s that’s exactly what we’ve had from the Dollar. Every reserve currency decays and loses it’s reserve status. The dollar is no different.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-02/de-dollarization-spreads-why-these-5-nations-are-backing-away-buck

Notice how DXY broke out on the linear chart where the upper downtrend channel resistance was broken, forming an apex with the declining resistance from the 1984 high.

Notice how DXY apex on the linear chart with the 1984 declining resistance, turned support now forms an apex in 2024.

Next, look at the log chart – the upper downtrend channel line also forms an apex with the declining resistance turned support from 1984. In 2024.

Why 2024 ? It’s simple – that’s the next cyclical low…

Could this pattern be blown out of the water ? Could the dollar soar, despite declining global significance ? Could it break out to 100, 120, 150 ? Anything is possible I suppose, but it’s just not how I’m reading the charts. With huge interest payments on 22 trillion debt, and one of the worlds worst debt to GDP ratios, things don’t look good for the Fed. Stock markets (in my view) are on the verge of a 50% correction, maybe more, at a time when it’s becoming clear that the FED has very little firepower left. This hiking cycle has maxed out (or is very close) at a pathetically low level. Leaving limited room to react in a crisis. Gold and the miners could collapse further, but after a protracted bear market and (apparent) basing process, I think we’re positioned for a PM bull market. In 6 to 12 months time I could be eating my words, and I’ll be the first to admit I read it wrong. It’s all open to personal interpretation and bias. Good luck to everyone on this forum – I hope we’re all able to benefit from the shared knowledge on here 😉

That’s how I see it. The dollar cycle bottoms in the mid 2020’s and gold should peak a couple of years later. It would be nice to have a crystal ball 🙂

Saw this on Twitter from GregTheAnalyst. Thought it worth sharing.

I’d expect the breakouts to start with quality names like this one first. Sandstorm is getting very close. Will it be beaten back again ?

Credit to Sven Henrich on Twitter…

or is this looking like something big is coming ? I could be wrong. Gold could collapse and the dollar could soar, but I’m putting my money on reverse symmetry moves for both.

If and when we get a ‘reverse symmetry’ blast through resistance in gold (through the $1350-$1400 region), it’s likely (if it’s the real deal) that silver will lead the charge, with miners taking off very rapidly. I’d like to see silver make much bigger percentage gains than gold. That will give me the confidence to say our wait is finally over. With that in mind, todays action is interesting.

In a bull market, the surprises tend to be to the upside of course, so we could blast out of this bowl pretty much anytime. The indicators are turning, but will this current uptick prove short-lived ?

As measured in the World Currency Unit…

Gravity looks like it will take hold soon. Those declining indicators are a big clue.

Well, here’s how I see it…

Not only does the horizontal support intersect the ‘bowl’ at $1240, but a .618 Fib retracement takes us to the $1240-$1245 region as well. Coincidence ?

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It looks like we’re going to need patience to see $gold finally breakout. It’s important now to keep the big picture in mind. First off, let’s have a look at recent price action and work on the assumption that we’re turning down towards an intermediate cycle low.

Interestingly that $1240 target coincides with the support provided by the ‘bowl’

And finally, the big picture. Once $1360 is broken, $1400 will follow very quickly as the ‘penny drops’. Look out for that big cyclical drop into 2023 though.

If it fails it doesn’t mean it’s a disaster, just a more prolonged/pronounced correction/consolidation. Far more important support lines lie further down.

Highrollers earlier chart looks very bearish. It shows MACD trending down as price advances. Here’s my version of the same chart…

But, it’s worth noting that it isn’t the case on the 6 month view…

And when you look at the last 5 years it isn’t there either…

When you zoom out further, the picture is very different…

It’s always worth looking at the whole picture to retain perspective. A pullback/correction is fine, just as long as the support lines hold.

Jim Willie makes a few good points in this article http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article64273.html

The topping process (assuming it is that) has been very different this time around. It’s had an effect on $gold and pretty much everything else. Will it finally roll over ?

Spotted something on the Amazon price chart that looks very familiar. I’ve put it side by side with our current gold chart. What do you think ?

Nothing to do now but sit and wait whilst the bulls and bears fight it out…

GSR, Gold price and the dollar – all have been building out a basing or topping pattern since 2015. I’d suggest that gold price being held back and the GSR failing to break down has a lot to do with the Dollar breaking above a very important resistance line in late 2014/early 2015. The question now is – which of these look like they’re topping out and looks vulnerable to dropping, and which looks ready to take off ?

Hint: Here’s a bonus chart, if you’re still not sure

It’s my view that the failure of the Dollar to reach 98 over and over again is very telling. If it’s preparing to roll over, we’re about to see a big trend change.