Goldtent TA Paradise

Dollar Bearish View

1. DaveintheUK says:

   March 11, 2019 - 3:28 pm at 3:28 pm

   Only intuition OI know but my intiution says to me that something changed between 2008 and 2011. What,m I don’t know. Probably fracking or probably the financial crisis or the start of the big Eurozone crisis that is still ongoing.
   I still like that breakout in the dollar in late 2014 above the lone from the tops in 1987 and 2001: the move from 80 to 100 above that line, that still has not given itself back. I think it wont and that USDX will stay above that line. That would mean mild bear market for US dollar on this cycle and a low maybe just under 80. Actually, on you chart (depends whether it is log or linear) USDX could still go to around 70 and still stay above that line.
   In my view dollar has entered a long term uptrend (40+ years) that might be the mirror image of the previous 45 year downtrend. Remember this index if merely the dollar against deadbeats like the pound, the euro and the yen. Those other areas are done for.

   • Northstar says:

     March 12, 2019 - 5:16 am at 5:16 am

     Hi Dave. Thanks for your thoughts. I disagree somewhat though. My view is that it’s the Dollar that is ‘deadbeat’. Major global players are, one by one, turning their back on it. Plans and provisions are in place to circumvent the dollar in global trade, in fact that’s already happening and gathering pace rapidly. The dollar is going to continue to lose its significance to the rest of the world.

     • Avocado Pit says:

       March 12, 2019 - 9:29 am at 9:29 am

       What major global players are turning their back on the dollar?

       • Northstar says:

         March 12, 2019 - 11:21 am at 11:21 am

         I will post the information in a seperate post. In essence this is behind Chinas enormous and growing gold reserves. These countries are already settling trade without the dollar.

2. Bikoo99 says:

   March 11, 2019 - 3:34 pm at 3:34 pm

   Great chart. Love it!!

3. KenS says:

   March 12, 2019 - 11:57 am at 11:57 am

   Nonetheless, the dollar is still valued against the basket of currencies that includes the Yuan, and will be for quite some time yet to come. Until the basket changes, the US dollar will continue to rise.

   • Northstar says:

     March 12, 2019 - 3:59 pm at 3:59 pm

     Why ? The dollar is losing it’s grip on global trade and the country behind it has a huge debt to GDP problem (worse than almost every other country on the planet). It’s going to become a question of confidence. I’m not saying the dollar will collapse, I’m merely saying it will fall/rise in the same, normal cyclical manner that it has done for the last 50 years. The economic cycle has an undeniable ‘heartbeat’. I’m relieved that many don’t believe this though. If everyone thought the dollar was going to fall I’d be more concerned.