Goldtent TA Paradise

If we’re in a gold bull market, these COT numbers (causing the ‘jaws’ to open) are fantastic news, and exactly what happened multiple times between 2000 and 2011. Don’t listen to anyone who says that such ‘extreme’ readings are a problem. They’re not. Yes, price may well back off as they close up a little from time to time, but in a prolonged bull run, the tendency is for the ‘jaws’ to remain wide open for longer periods of time, allowing price to surge higher.

Every platform I can find is confirming a pretty dramatic fall, right at the end of the days trading. All show a close at 97.03 – what happened ?

Edit : Monday morning update – Dollar surges past 97.7, so just some sort of data glitch.

Short term indicators need to be reset, but as you can see in the second chart, the longer term indicators have barely started to move yet.

Edit: Well, that didn’t last too long…

The Linear chart and the log chart now both confirm the new bull market…

Scroll to the top of this series of Tweets and follow the thread downwards…

https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1159076431311323136

Not especially. Very average since gold bottomed in 2016. If you use gold to measure how quickly FIAT money is disappearing down the sewer, the Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, Euro and Japanese Yen are doing better. US Dollar a safe haven ? I don’t think so – the statistics just don’t support it.

The HUI has considerable upside on this move

$1550 ? $1650 ? $1800 ? All are possible, and I’ve already posted my personal view. A couple of things have caught my attention, and probably yours as well. As mentioned in an earlier post, all these countries around the world where we’re flying well past previous records and on to new all-time highs, and not a whisper, anywhere. The second thing is that in some places we seem to be going parabolic – North Korea, Turkey, South Africa and India…

Even Sweden !

I mention this because of what it implies. It implies huge currency/banking/financial problems in all of these places. Judging by recent price action elsewhere, the rest of us aren’t too far behind. Something bad is happening. Something very bad, and unlike previous occasions, we all seem to be in it together.

At least until the 8 year cycle low (mid-16 year cycle), where it may be breaches as in 2008. Anyway, on the assumption that we have now seen THE low in 2016, and this breakout is real, and the start of a new trend, we can start to do some analysis. Looking at the last bull run from 2000 to 2011, we can fiddle about with the moving averages to find the one which offered the best support. I’ve done that for the charts in GBP and USD. I’ve defined an approximate range from the moving average to the tops of the price spikes and drawn a channel which contains them. Applying that going forwards may give us a very useful reality check and tell us when we’re approaching ‘the limit’ for any particular move. This doesn’t, of course, take into account any unforeseen, major event that blows up and rocks the entire global financial system…

We will get a long, boring pullback/correction before too long (unless the poop is really hitting the fan this time). Here are my thoughts on 3 possible scenarios…

We’ve had a fantastic move. There’s a bit more to go, then the moving averages will need to catch up. That may take a few months. IF we pass $1625 and stretch 40% above the MA, we will have $1800+ followed by a very long consolidation in my view.

Following up from this post https://goldtadise.com/?p=440363

Russia, Indonesia, India, Brazil, The UK, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa are all on the dancefloor

The US Dollar will probably be last to the party, but they sure have an invitation, and last I heard, they were on their way, dressed as if it’s the 1970’s…

Garys earlier post prompted me to have a close look at this pair. If you use a candlestick chart, it looks a bit different. This is my take. for what it’s worth…

Leverage from the miners…

You might remember a while back, some people were worried we might be about to repeat what happened in 1988. After the peak in 1980 and a long consolidation (similar in appearance to the one we’ve just had), Gold was rejected at resistance and then endured another 12 year decline from $500 to $300 (approx.). I’m happy to say we can now rule this scenario out completely…

Onwards and upwards…

Let’s have a look at some of the evidence so far…

And still we wait for silver and the gold/silver ratio to confirm. The US Dollar is keeping me in suspense as well, with my dome still intact, and the stocharstic about to drop into the purple zone (very bearish)…

In conclusion, I expect gold to move quickly to between $1550 and $1600. There is no public participation here in the UK, despite new all-time highs. This tells me (reassures me) that this is just the beginning. Trouble has been brewing in the global financial system for a long time. I don’t know how it’s going to unfold, but unfold it will. Gold (globally) is flashing red. Central banks have been stockpiling gold (for very good reasons). Trade tensions are building and it seems the banking system here in Europe is just one hiccup away from disaster. I said a long time ago that I didn’t believe interest rates would reach ‘escape velocity’. What I meant by that is that it’s mathematically impossible to ‘normalise’ rates without destroying the global financial system. I’ve given up tracking US debt and global debt to GDP ratios because they are past the point of no-return. And so it has proved. Rates barely got above 2% and we’re cutting again. This is going to be a historic event, make no mistake. Since the US Dollar became global reserve currency, we have never faced this dilemma. Gold knows this. Gold is going much higher in my view.

Energy Fuels has taken a big hit recently, but is nearing long term support in a bullish wedge. In my view, it represents a decent risk/reward trade.

Another bullish breakout…

Thought I’d have a closer look at how silver is doing in a country where gold never even entered a bear market, and is way up there in the new all-time highs. Well, it needs to more than double to get back to it’s old highs…

Interesting, don’t you think ?

The bears seem to have gone quiet here too

Following on from my previous post https://goldtadise.com/?p=443532

Weekly and monthly closes above £1200 are needed for confirmation of course.

Has broken out of a bullish wedge. MACD indicator is in a bullish configuration. Watch price action as MACD moves into positive territory. I expect $20-$21 to come quite quickly now, but after that, the jury is out in my view. I’m keeping an open mind here.

I’m very bullish on silver until we reach $20/$21, but after that, I’m going to have to have a long hard think…

The similarities are striking. Will history repeat ? Deflation ? Silver acting as a commodity whilst gold is driven to new highs by global demand, amidst widespread hoarding by central banks who can see what’s coming next ? Maybe.

On the log chart, silver doesn’t need to regain the trendline – it just bounced off it, and is setting up for a repeat of what happened 16 years ago. 16 years – that should ring bells. PM’s have a 16 year cycle…