Goldtent TA Paradise

Will it pan out like this ?  The chart says it’s perfectly possible

Of the many, many bullish looking Gold and Silver miners charts. Not a recommendation (you need to do your own research), but this happens to be one that I’ve been holding, and made a very good return on.

I’ve been saying for a long time now that this ‘golden bowl’ is going to guide us back towards the old highs. We’re about to embark on that final leg (in my opinion). I don’t expect to exceed $1900, but $1800 is probably nearer the mark. It may take another couple of weeks to really get going. As per my most recent post, a pause/slight pullback would make sense here. On shorter timescales, the technical indicators are getting a little stretched, but as you can see on the chart below, on longer timeframes, they are perfectly poised for a run-up.

I know the miners and silver have been a little ‘shy’ in recent days. They’re waiting for the big moment. I expect the Gold/Silver ratio to make a decisive move down, when all this happens. I expect silver to out perform gold and I expect the miners to make very large gains in the coming weeks, and play catch up (75%+). None of this is ‘set in stone’, but having analysed the charts, it’s the highest probability outcome (again, in my personal opinion). The jigsaw pieces have come together perfectly since the basing formation was identified. Extreme caution will then be needed, but I hope everyone will be nicely in profit by then, and able to ‘lock’ that profit in.

A final note – next Fed meeting is 28/29 Jan…

It’s not difficult to see why

But is the ‘floppy dong’ chart pattern about to strike ?

Of a large move

If I take $1800 as a gold target (seems reasonable to me, looking at the chart and based on past evidence), and $27 for Silver, which looks perfectly reasonable for the same reasons, that gives us a Gold/Silver Ratio of 66.66, which is also exactly the sort of place I’d expect to see it at the end of the next big move.

And why $1750 or more seems likely…

Things are slowly becoming clearer in terms of this PM bull market, and its intentions. The evidence so far…

• We have formed a very clear and well defined base, with a low of approximately $1050
• We have since risen around 50% via a series of bullish chart patterns, each of which I have posted about in real time
• COT data, technical indicators and fundamentals have all provided a clear prediction that this was going to happen, and now indicate an assault on overhead targets, leading to new highs

My personal opinion (supported by the following charts) is that we will shortly break through $1550 resistance, leading to a new high for this bull, somewhere between $1750 and $1900 (probably just above $1800 if I had to be more precise). All of this is likely to occur within the next 3-6 months. My recommendation would be to exit all positions at that point, in anticipation of a pullback, close to current levels.

The mining indices (HUI, GDX, GDXJ) are likely to gain close to 100%, with silver and silver miners over-performing

So, good times ahead, followed by an opportunity to exit, and then re-enter at lower levels, ready for the next big move which will be the break to new all-time highs next year.

My second chart below, shows a roadmap with a perfectly sensible, reasonable, angle of ascent (the same as last time) into the bull market peak in the late 2020’s or around 2030.

As with any forecast, this will all need to be kept under constant review to make sure we’re not about to take a different path. There are many possible future outcomes, but this (in my view) is the one with the highest probability.

One step at a time, but here’s a possibility…

Wishing you all a brilliant New Year. I wonder how things will look when we get to next December and can look back with 2020 vision 😉

Still hasn’t changed

to those who celebrate it. Peace and goodwill to everyone. As expected, the ‘golden bowl’ basing pattern and bullish falling wedge have combined to give us lots of advance notice that this breakout was coming. Silver should lead the way.

It’s been reassuring to see the PM bearish posts on here recently. That’s partly because it always pays to consider all possibilities, and partly because it’s a good sign a bottom may be near.

If this pattern holds (there are no guarantees, but it’s been reliable so far), then the PM miners have very limited downside, and some great upside potential in the coming week/months.

Is this the start of the next big leg up ? It could be. As you know, I’ve been saying that the next big move will be characterised by silver taking the lead (and therefore a dropping GSR). It’s very early days, but the fact that silver has broken out decisively is tantalising…

I don’t think so. In fact the HUI is up 10% since the middle of October…

It’s a waiting game now

Price action at the $2.25 level will be critical. Are we going to go nuclear, or will it fizzle out like a damp firework ?

Versus the US Dollar…

Maximum downside appears to be $16. One enormous, geometrically perfect arc…

What follows are 3 gold charts which lay out my expectation for 2020. The first compares the base breakout in 2002/2003 to where we are now. In effect, back testing the breakout with a bullish descending wedge, which targets somewhere in the $1410 area (that’s also roughly the region where the 200 day moving average sits currently). I’m not saying we are going to hit $1410, just that it’s a possibility. I’ve highlighted the 6 to 7 year advance that followed, which, if repeated, takes us into 2022…

Next up, I’ve highlighted those breakouts and added the Stochastic Indicator…

So, my theory is that we advance 20% or so from current levels, taking us to around $1700. We may overshoot towards $1800, but we’ll have a better idea nearer the time if that’s looking likely. Another lengthy consolidation/correction can be expected after that, probably bringing us back to $1600 or a little less. The next advance in 2021 will, most likely take us to new all-time highs…

Finally, what does that mean for the miners ? Well, it’s pretty clear to me that we could realistically expect a 100% gain in the next few months…

So that’s my working plan. If the first part of it pans out, and we do indeed see a very big move in the miners, my recommendation (for what it’s worth) would be to lock in profits as the move is coming to a close (I’ll be posting my views on that nearer the time of course). 2021 also has great promise, and could well bring new all-time highs. With the mid-15 year cycle low due in early 2023, I would view 2022 with great suspicion.

Sincere apologies – I just noticed a stupid error. My upper support/resistance line was incorrectly placed. Here’s the correct version…