Goldtent TA Paradise

Note – the lettering and numbering on the chart has nothing to do with Elliot Wave theory. It’s just to highlight the main turning points and consolidation patterns.

Time to accumulate some more ? The risk v reward looks pretty good to me here. I’m holding long positions unless that supporting arc is broken to the downside. It’s been totally reliable so far.

We’re back above the very long term support/resistance trend line on the log chart for gold. $1560 is where it all went badly wrong back in 2013, and is providing significant resistance, as we’d expect. FOMC next week could be very important. A monthly close above $1560 would make $1800 by March/April highly likely in my view. A failure here will make a $150 drop to $1400 likely.

Updated to include my thoughts on what may happen if the arc were to fail. Remember we have FOMC next week as well, so it is possible this pattern extends to the right until then, with a larger, bullish, falling wedge taking over as the main, overall pattern.

The big picture is very clear – expect some very impressive gains in coming months and years.

A very orderly consolidation. Awaiting the next big move

PM’s don’t seem to be in any mood to wait for the Fed meeting at the end of the month.

EDIT – Oops, that ‘Iran spike’ caught me out on the Silver chart. Here’s the corrected version…

Zoomed in, the GDX looks primed for a big move. To go back in time, I’ve used Barrick Gold as chart patterns have closely mirrored GDX, Also looking ready to move…

I’m expecting Silver and the miners to start leading the PM sector soon. Silver looks like it could be getting close to breakout territory…

The pattern may still morph into a longer, more drawn out affair, but…

Here are 3 charts which summarise how we’re progressing. First up, here’s the one I posted on 18th December, when I identified the most likely pattern and resulting move that would result…

Next we can see, what happened next, along with a chart which is a little more zoomed in on the area which is marked ‘pause’…

But the Uranium sector is showing us some pretty bullish looking charts. Not for the faint-hearted though.

All 3 charts are on the edge of a large move. Gold targeting somewhere above $1700, and possibly a little above $1800. Silver somewhere in the $20-$22 range, with $24-$28 a possibility. GDX is playing out a reverse symmetry candle with April 2013, which, if it completes, will take us to at least $37.

We’ve broken out of a large bull flag, within a bullish Arc basing formation and may be forming another smaller bull flag.

It may take a couple of weeks (or until the Fed decision at the end of the month), but I believe the battle to defend $1560 will soon be lost.

These perfect geometric arcs combine with bullish wedge breakouts at, or near the edge of the arc. It’s very satisfying to see them playing out on smaller time frames as well as the 6+ years of the massive gold base formation. They seem to come with a very high success rate as long as the indicators and cycles are matched up favourably as well.

It’ll be interesting to see if this bullish set up plays out today…

Stage 2 next…

We really don’t want to see it falling any further here…

I posted this chart a few days ago…

https://goldtadise.com/?p=453809

Forget all the drama and focus on the big picture. Nothing has changed. A pause here would be a perfect precursor to the next leg up.

I’ve been saying for a long time that a GSR breakdown will signal this years BIG move is underway. We have a bearish reversal pattern in place. Tick, tock, tick, tock…

All on board killed https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/iran-plane-crash-three-brits-feared-dead-after-ukrainian-airlines-jet-crashes/ar-BBYJfqr?ocid=spartanntp

Video of the ‘crash’ https://twitter.com/fourTfive4life/status/1214764338638131200

Who was on board ? Pure coincidence ? and who was filming a plane in the dark ? and why ?

Looking bullish for PMs in the long term. On the verge of a breakout…

Gold is surging towards $1600 on geo-political instability. The possible/likely pause didn’t occur (but I’d expect a pullback /consolidation at some point). The chart told us this was going to happen, in no uncertain terms. We rarely know why, or specifically what, it is that will bring these future chart patterns about, but I try not to over think that. The chart speaks for itself. Case in point – why is the US Dollar Index going to fall below 90, below 80, and possibly below 70, instead of surging to 100, 120 or 160 ? I’m not going to over think that either. The chart is telling us that a Dollar plunge is far, far more likely than a Dollar surge. Until, or unless the chart tells me otherwise, that is the current forecast (from me at least).

My longer term view has been, and remains that $1800 Gold and $27 Silver are perfectly possible within 3-4 months. Not guaranteed of course, but the charts do support that outcome.

Time will tell how sustainable this move is…

By smoothing out the Stocharstic indicator, it gets rid of the ‘clutter’ and gives far fewer ‘crossovers’. In simple terms it just gives one buy signal, and one sell signal during each cycle. We have recently had a sell signal…

There are many ways of visualising the big picture for gold. Here’s one…

Again, not a recommendation, but another one I’ve been very fortunate to pick up very close to the bottom. Three very simple lines to watch as they interact with, and guide price upwards…