Goldtent TA Paradise

but so is this…

IF this is a valid, bullish falling wedge, the US Dollar Index is going much, much higher. It would require a big departure from the behaviour of the last 3 cyclical downturns (at least in terms of timing). The Dollar Index currently finds itself at the same level as the last 2 TRIX crosses below zero (bearish) – close to 100. Will it behave differently this time and surge upwards instead of plunging ?

Just a possibility. It’s a bit messy, and I’m not a great fan of these patterns as they can be pretty unclear and many I’ve looked at don’t seem to work out (maybe I’m doing it wrong lol).

If you have a thesis, you need to be able to move quickly from bearish to bullish (or vice-versa). If DXY closes above 98.50 today I will be turning much more bullish on the US Dollar as my ‘red line’ will have been crossed. Always keeping an open mind is important. It’s important to note that Gold has been moving up with the Dollar for the last couple of years.

(Charts drawn using Tradingview software)

After Fullys post below, this is my view of UUP. Investors across the planet must be aware of this…

Pretty much all of them. I took a large position a few days ago, and up 10-20% on all of them. I believe we could see several hundred percent, but I’m ready to bail when the charts say so. Ethereum has just joined the party. Classic bullish triangle/bowl combination with supportive indicators…

I firmly believe this early phase of the bull market has more to give in the next few weeks…

Whilst these daily/weekly fluctuations continue, the monthly chart give the big picture

Taking a look at bull market of the early to mid 2000’s. Here are some observations…

Uranium, Bitcoin and HUI – all look well placed to rally in the coming months/years

Anyone nervous yet ? The bottom line for me is downside – approx $1400, upside – $1900+, which means holding firm.

What next I wonder…

I don’t think this can be underestimated. I know I’ve probably bored you all to tears with chart after chart depicting the ‘golden bowl’ arc basing formation. Every time I’ve drawn it, I’ve used the arc tool provided in the charting software. It draws it geometrically perfectly, with the lowest point of the arc at the exact mid-point. When price touches a valid arc it reacts and backs away. It’s not easy to know in the early stages, a) whether we’re going to see a ‘V’ shaped bottom or an ‘arc’ or b) if it is an arc, just how far in time it will need to be ‘stretched’.

Once we pass the cyclical low, we start to get higher highs, and it’s at that point we can start to be more confident about how to place the right hemisphere. The US Dollar is the first time I’ve attempted to invert the arc and watch how it plays out at a cyclical top. I’d never seen it done before (but I’m sure someone, somewhere has). I just spotted that the previous cyclical Dollar top in the early 2000’s fitted this pattern. Time will tell, whether I’m barking up the wrong tree with this one – I can see some strong arguments for the Dollar to rally way past 100 and bust out of the dome. Yet, I can’t deny it’s there, and that (in theory), we’re fast heading towards a major Dollar cycle low.

Anyway, that’s all theory for now, but in the case of gold, the theory proved correct, and the arc contained price all the way up to THE breakout. For some, THE breakout will be the move to new all-time highs. For me though, THE breakout was the move above the final, long term, declining resistance line, with a weekly and monthly close above that line.

Gold investors right across the planet MUST be seeing what we’re seeing. Many of us have positioned into the miners which give much larger, leveraged gains during a gold bull market. The miners (and silver) have disappointed many by their slow rise (even though GDX/GDXJ/HUI are all up over 100% from their major cycle lows around 4 years ago). If I’m right, that’s about to change.

For me, this chart is the culmination of years of discussion, consideration and anticipation

Will there be an attempt to push gold down ? Can that be achieved, or will Gold priced in US Dollars follow the lead of all the other currencies which I’ve posted many times ? Strap yourself in to find out.

Edit: I made an error with the support line (must’ve knocked my mouse and not noticed) – I’ve added a ‘cleaner’ version.

Edit 2: This is a PM orientated site, so I don’t want to keep putting crypto posts on here. It’s bound to upset someone. If you’re interested at this important point, check out my Twitter feed.

ALL bear market downtrend resistance lines have been broken to the upside on log and non-log price charts for gold. We are no longer in bear market territory. All other major global currencies have been in this position for a considerable time, with many at ALL TIME HIGHS. This is now undeniably a bull market for gold. We are up over $500 (around 50%), and still there are non-believers. That’s good. Very good. Mainstream investors have barely noticed yet – fuel which we’ll need in the more mature stages of this bull market.

Only horizontal resistance ‘zones’ lie between here and the old highs. The next chart ties all of this in to where we are in the 15/16 year gold cycle, and explains why I’ve been bullish since the cycle low in 2015/16. Many don’t believe in cycles, but you can’t deny the gold cycle has done it’s thing again…

So now we’re in a bull market, we have a different set of expectations when using the indicators. The only exception is likely to be the lead up to the mid-cycle low (2023). A repeat of the 2008 plunge is perfectly possible…

As this bull market unfolds, we can ‘adjust’ our expectations. I stated a while back that I expected over $1700 by March/April, perhaps even over $1800. That appears increasingly likely. I now expect the old highs to be challenged this year. A sizeable pullback is likely, in order to fuel the surge past $1900. We have plenty of time before the necessary mid-cycle ‘plunge’, with several years after that to the ultimate peak which could be around 2030.

So where will the gold price be by then ? I’m going to go back to some of the charts I prepared years ago, but $5000 to $10000 is not at all unreasonable. You may be thinking ‘woah, that’s crazy talk’ and you will hear a lot of whooping and hollering as we progress.

The point is – if we surpass $1900 so early on in the bull cycle – where do you think we’re going to end up ? Remember, we went from $250 to $1900 last time, that’s almost an 8-fold increase. I’ve said repeatedly ‘one step at a time’, but I think we’ve come far enough, fast enough, to be able to start extrapolating some early conclusions and laying out a framework for the future.

I’ll be putting together a ‘model’ for the next 10 years, which I’ll monitor as the price action unfolds, constantly taking the latest observations into account and feeding that back in to adjust and refine the model. It’s how we forecast the weather, and it seems to be working pretty well with trying to get a handle on the gold action.

One step at a time, but with an eye on the big picture 🙂

Please explain what just happened

I’ve drawn up a couple of examples below, to give you an idea where and when I plan to start (temporarily) exiting positions. I’ve learned from the past and plan to lock in profits which, in some cases will be several hundred percent. On reaching the old highs, I expect some kind of resistance/consolidation/pullback. It could, of course, just slice through. I’ll look more closely at that possibility nearer the time.

Apologies to those not interested in cryptos. DM requested this one. Back to PM’s after this…

I would wait for a breakout before buying, which would currently mean a move above 0.25

The big picture looks very promising

Edit – rather than take up space with another post, I’ve added the HUI chart, which looks very bullish indeed.

I rarely post on cryptocurrencies (quite rightly on a PM orientated site), BUT this warrants a mention…

Edit: Ethereum chart added

Edit 2: Litecoin added

Edit 3: Disclaimer – I should say, I’ve taken a sizeable position in all 3.

During the last big bull run in PM’s the GSR climbed sharply for the first 3 years. The same thing is happening again…

A little off-topic maybe, but it does have economic implications, and I thought it worth a mention whilst we’re waiting for PM’s to make their next major move.

I know that every death caused by any illness is sad for those involved, but I think a little context might be useful here.

There are all sorts of apocalyptic headlines, and warnings about how bad this is, with very tight restrictions being put in place, particularly in China (with the likely effects that may have on Chinese output, GDP, etc). Coronavirus is a group of viruses which includes the common cold. A current article on Zerohedge states the following…

131 deaths. So how many die each year from ordinary flu ? Around about half a million…

The elderly and those with pre-existing conditions account for the vast majority of the mortality rate in both cases.