Miners Nearing Significant Move ?

So little volatility in the HUI lately. It’s getting compressed into the end of a wedge whilst building out a possible right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. I added a few horizontal support lines to this chart. Lots of bullish triangles/wedges, along with two head and shoulders tops and our current (possible), inverse h&s.

Just For Fun

A quick guide as to where I think we will end up. I’ll be much happier and more confident once we get past this patch of turbulence.

More AUD/USD

The AUD chart is troubling. You might remember my chart from a few days ago – the dollar rising to back-test from below…

If the dollar resumes its downtrend after this test (which it will need to do soon), it means the AUD and AUD/USD pair will resolve to the upside. Here’s another chart of AUD/USD. It’s the daily, linear chart, which puts a slightly different slant on things.

The downside space on this chart, just about matches the upside limitations we have on the dollar. If they breach, we’re screwed.

 

Aussie Dollar – Right Shoulder Or Bear Flag ?

What do you think ? Inverse head and shoulders or bear flag ?

If it’s a bear flag, the PM’s are screwed and we’d be looking at sub $1000 gold and $10 silver. HUI would probably fall well below 100.

Edit –  If this is an inverse head and shoulders pattern, the neckline is sloping from lower left to upper right.

Amazing…

…what you find when you start looking. Talk about jigsaw puzzle – the AUD/USD pair seems to fit perfectly. I hope I’m not being biased here, but this is what the chart is saying to me, and it matches perfectly with my current expectations. Thank you Fully for your earlier post, it prompted me to dig into this a bit. Whether the AUD/USD rises for a couple of months or possibly up to 18 months or so, we’ll have to wait and see. The possibility of a drop to the bottom support rail right now is (in my view), very low. That’s based on the time element (see my earlier post), and the fact that we are only just getting to the moving average crossover after the cycle low. Look what happened during every other cycle.

AUD/USD – Looking For More Upside

Following Fullys excellent chart earlier, I thought I’d see how we’re doing from a time point of view. This currency pair has a very reliable cycle (trough to trough). Each cycle low has coincided perfectly with the ratio making it’s low. The time taken from that point to the cycle high has been varying from 2.5 to 4 years. At the moment, we’re 2.3 years from the last cycle low. That gives us at least another couple of months, unless we’re getting an even shorter time span from low to high. Based on the average though, this should resolve upwards at this point in time.

Gold Flag

Sideways consolidation continues to build the golden flag. Looking at the cyclical pattern of lows, it looks to me as if we could be about to turn up and have another go at breaking out. If not, you can see from the chart below where the support is and when we’ll get another chance.

Visualising Dollar Patterns

Here’s yet another way of visualising where we’ve been and (if the cycle repeats), where we’re going. If the dollar cycle gets broken, all bets are off, but I don’t think it will.

Another Dollar Observation

Coincidence ? I don’t think so…

The Dollar Back-Testing Resistance ?

Until this is done, and the dollar bulls roll over, gold and silver will be held in check. I think this is the final (doomed to failure) move for the greenback. All we can do is sit back and wait for it to play out. Here’s how I’m seeing the next 16 months…