Time For A Recap Perhaps ?

There’s quite a debate going on. Bull or bear ? Here’s a recap of some of the charts I’ve posted in the last year or so. I think they’re all still very relevant.¬† Everything from the dollar to the SGR and CHF. Patterns, targets, cycles. Make of it what you will…

This Chart Says We’ll Have Our Answer Very Soon

If that is indeed one enormous bullish pennant, 2018 is going to bring us some real fireworks. The bear case takes us to less than $1000, but I just can’t see how that’s going to be possible when you take the cycle timing into account. Surely that’s the big clue that this thing is going to explode upwards, rather than collapse into a smoldering pile of donkey dung. Fully is our donkey expert though.

Gold Gearing Up For An Upward Break

Downside on this chart appears to be about $60 (assuming that rising support line holds). Upside is $200 + in the relatively short term. A correction should follow an initial move to the $1500-$1550 area, before we head higher again. I could be wrong of course, but that is what the chart looks like to me at this point. We could begin to move higher anytime I guess, but timings look to suggest further weakness into December. The similarities with 2007-2009 are too striking to ignore. Here’s the chart…

On Track For $1200 Area ?

Apologies for going ‘AWOL’. Tough times at the moment, and it certainly puts everything in perspective. Anyway, one of my last posts in September included this chart…

 

Having been just an observer on this site for a few weeks, it’s good to have a few minutes to be able to update it…

 

If I had more time, I’d add more supporting evidence (cycles, indicators etc), but suffice to say that it still looks like a bumpy ride into year end for gold and silver. Of course, it’s possible we don’t go quite that low, but the chart does suggest it’s likely. As many have noted the commodity sector is hotting up. Base metals breaking out, rare earths are stirring and uranium is following Graddhys script very nicely. Bottom line is that inflation is set to move into these sectors more convincingly over the coming months and years. The SM blow off phase looks to be underway with a smaller and smaller number of ‘big names’ blasting higher, whilst most are already showing weakness. It’s so well anticipated that when it happens, the rush for the exits will see a big move into undervalued sectors and traditional safe havens. 2018 looks set to be a big year for us. I may be mostly absent for a few more weeks, but I’ll be keeping tabs on everyones amazing posts with interest.

All Normal Behavior So Far

Here’s my take on the COT position…

And the gold price…

A Look At GDXJ

Following Fullys earlier GDXJ chart, which appears to show a possible breach of support, I thought I’d have a closer look. On a shortish time frame, linear chart, it doesn’t look too promising, but these patterns build out over quite a long time, so I believe the log charts are often better. That’s because everything ‘financial’ out in the real world is growing exponentially (money creation/debt etc). This is what I see…

This is another chart that says a move is coming very soon, just like the dollar and gold charts. It feels like we’re always waiting for ‘THE’ move to happen, but it’ll only be hindsight that confirms all of this. Keep an eye on the support line on my first chart. We really don’t want to see that broken. That wouldn’t be good. Not good at all.

Simplicity Speaks Volumes

No need for commentary. The chart says it all.

Frustrating But Still On Course

I’ve not posted for a while. Mainly because not much has changed. I’ve got 3 charts for you to show what I mean. In the short term (until the end of the year) I’m not convinced how big any moves are likely to be. I favour gold rising, dollar weakening again, followed by a December drop in PM’s and dollar pop. There is scope for gold to fall significantly though, and still be within the bullish triangle on the log chart. One thing I’m very sure of is that in the next ‘few months’ gold will make that final, crucial breakout, with the dollar slicing through support (shown on my chart). CHF/USD supports the idea that we may see further short term PM weakness (followed by a clear, bull market move). Other metals have been smelling this bull market already. Commodities are set to have their time in the sun again. Inflation is starting to rise above bank targets (3% here in the UK). Central banks are going to have their work cut out. 2018 is going to be a big year, when all becomes clear.

Gold COT Position

I’m a little unclear about the concern looking at this chart

Gold – No Breakout Has Occured…

… on the log chart yet. ¬†Here are a couple of alternate symmetrical triangles. A break above the $1320-$1340 region is required. Some important dates and price levels are marked.