While he presents an interesting narrative that has some validity, it isn’t as strong a realtionship as it might once have been. Yes, you have a group of young traders who speculate and take short term profits, who make money in bullish years and lose, most likely, in bearish ones.

So a small increase in tax receipts in good stock market years and small decline in taxes in bad market years. The fact that over the last few decades, an increasing proportion of stock market investing, as oppossed to the smaller dollar amounts of trading, is done by longer term investors using IRA’s, 401Ks mutual funds etc. in tax sheltered accounts where even when profits are taken on positions, no new tax revenue flows to the IRS.

Of course some people need to tap their accounts, but in most cases if people are employed they take a 401K loan and make monthly payments from their salaries. Only someone who liquidates the account before retirement age has a taxable event, and while that happens, in the current low unemploymnt environment, not so much, yet.

So while the trends are valid, I believe much less so, than they once were before so much money became tax sheltered in long term tax advantaged accounts. http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mcclellan/mcclellan021924.html