Jeff Childers explains the significance of Avdiivka . I encourage everyone to support Jeff Childers Coffee and Covid Blog.

The Proxy War suffered its biggest defeat this week and the world is poised at a critical inflection point. Yesterday CNN ran a polished bit of propaganda headlined, “Ukraine’s forces withdraw from key eastern town of Avdiivka after months of fighting.”

They had to say something. Every corporate media platform primly described the loss of Avdiivka as a graceful “withdrawal,” a tactical decision the Ukrainians made to confound the Russians once again, just a temporary setback to allow time for regrouping. But the most reliable warbloggers — on both sides — are using more alarming and direct words and phrases like ‘chaos,’ ‘total collapse,’ ‘disorganization,’ ‘massacre,’ ‘routed,’ and ‘catastrophe.’

It was the single most devastating loss for Ukraine since the Proxy War started, both militarily and more importantly for the war planners: it was a public relations disaster. While you probably never heard of the fortress city of Avdiivka, it has consistently been described as one of the most strategically-critical positions in the eastern half of Ukraine — if not in the entire country.

Despite the direct involvement of every major world government and the rapt attention of the world’s most well-funded and well-organized news media — show me one place in the world more closely studied than wartime Ukraine — reliable information about the war is still maddeningly impossible to obtain. It might be the most heavily propagandized conflict in history. So we must rely on plucky, independent war bloggers on Telegram. In a kind of informational survival of the fittest, over the last 24 months some bloggers have proven to more consistently be reliable sources of information than others.

All that to say, this week the most reliable war bloggers described a hellish nightmare unfolding in Avdiivka, with a sudden collapse of admittedly courageous Ukrainian troops, those last brave holdouts who were being slaughtered or captured by the Russians yesterday in the thousands.

In one of war’s bizarre, baffling, and bitter coincidences, Ukraine’s top general, Oleksandr Syrskyi, had just assumed command in time to command the loss of Avdiivka. Ironically, Syrskyi is the same general also tarred with the loss of Ukraine’s second-worst strategic defeat — the brutal nine-month siege of Bahkmut. His generalship over that godforsaken city earned him wide disdain by the troops and the unflattering nickname, “The Butcher.”

Through a wild confluence of events, Syrskyi’s permanent record now includes both humiliating defeats. This time though, mere days after assuming command, Syrskyi practically sprinted to order his troops out of the Russians’ diabolical incinerator, a military pressure-cooker for poor Ukrainians who were dying in wholesale lots while laboring heroically, unsupported, without ammunition or supplies, nearly surrounded but under direct orders to stick it at all costs.

Yesterday’s orders to retreat were long overdue and nearly came too late.

At the last possible second, before the final possible avenue of retreat was closed, Syrskyi wisely pulled the plug, telling media he had made the decision to avoid encirclement and, uncharacteristically, to “preserve the lives and health of servicemen.” It was the right call, a hundred percent, but the truth was The Butcher simply could not afford having another bloody meat-grinder pinned on his flagging record.

As you know, I usually eschew the play-by-play in Ukraine, both because I am unqualified — I’m a lawyer, not a military strategist — but also because high quality war commentary is widely available elsewhere and because there’s simply no way for me to tell for certain what’s true and what is military-grade propaganda. It’s mostly guesswork.

But we know for sure that the Ukrainians just got handed the worst news in two years. Let’s discuss Avdiivka a little more to understand why the loss is so strategically significant, since the loss is a geopolitical inflection point that probably affects us all in one way or another.

Starting well before 2014, NATO assisted Ukraine with developing Avdiivka into a major strategic outpost. The town is strategically positioned amidst a key intersection of highways controlling access between eastern and western areas. It enjoys terrific geographic advantages surrounded by heights making it extremely defensible. And over the years, NATO war engineers helped build out a vast defensive perimeter with concrete walls, ditches, trench networks, bunkers, chokepoints, anti-tank defenses, and the like.

Avdiivka was probably the most well-defended military base in Ukraine. It was manned with Ukraine’s most experienced soldiers. Until the Russians made re-supply nearly impossible, Avdiivka was supplied with NATO’s top weapons and best ammunition. It had every advantage Zelensky could give it.

Long before the Proxy War started, the literature was packed with suggestions that Russia — probably correctly — viewed the fortress city of Avdiivka as a NATO construct intended to be a key base from which to launch a future land war against Russia. Russia laid siege to Avdiivka last October and ever since, that particular struggle has been described as the fiercest fighting in the war.

Throughout the war, Ukraine’s former-comedian-turned-president Zelensky continually described Avdiivka as an invaluable strategic location that Ukraine simply could not afford to lose. The town’s precarious fate recently became a regular feature in urgent Congressional briefings used to justify more war funding. Until the last month or so, when its loss became all but certain, corporate media commenters and DOD officials described preserving the town as a critical military priority.

Here’s one example headline, just two months ago in late December, showing how military experts believed Avdiivka was the linchpin for the entire war:

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It is no exaggeration to say the fate of the fortress city was frequently linked to the success of the Proxy War itself. If Ukraine lost Avdiivka, Ukraine would also, inevitably, inexorably, inescapably lose the war.

After the Russians captured Bahkmut over a year ago, they stopped to take a long breather, giving the Ukrainians time to recoup and rebuild a new defensive line. At the time, Russia was dealing with a recalcitrant Wagner Group that needed to be replaced. But this time, the warbloggers report that Russia is following the standard military playbook for a win of this significance: this time, the Russian army is pressing forward and giving the Ukrainians no time to rest or recover.

As I said, Western corporate media is spinning the story as a minor setback, but the wide coverage of the story and little hints here and there reveal the outlines of the real problem. But one group who cares nothing for Western media reports about the war is the Ukrainian army itself. And from independent reports, the Ukrainian army is not happy, not in any way, with how things are going.

Morale among the Ukrainians is catastrophically-low. Zelensky has, once again, fled the country during this difficult time, ostensibly to recruit foreign support, but more likely to cut off possibility of a coup. A coup has now become a real possibility. Troop morale is not something easily controlled by Zelensky’s NATO minders far from the frontlines in Poland and Germany.

It all amounts to a terrific crisis. The jewel of Ukraine’s military has fallen. The Russian army is advancing. At this critical moment, Ukraine’s army is headed by an unqualified, inexperienced, brand-new top general widely hated by the troops. The troops are understandably feeling restless and ornery. Even if we give the Ukrainians an infusion of billions of dollars in new tanks and weapons, they might just turn around and use those tanks and weapons against the Zelensky regime.

It’s a conundrum.

Zooming out even further, Ukraine’s crisis extends to all of us. The controversial $61 billion-dollar Ukraine aid package was intended to delay the inevitable loss of the war until after November’s elections. The Biden Administration is terrified of losing its Proxy War in Ukraine (after what happened in Afghanistan).

Make no mistake, right now NATO is considering all of its options. But our apparent commander-in-chief can’t even remember what year it is. Our Secretary of Defense is in and out of the hospital with a mystery illness. Decisions are being made by unknown and unaccountable underlings, who are probably youthful, marxist cross-dressers.

The risk of a bad decision being made has reached a pinnacle of incalculable insanity.

Of course, it is equally possible that cooler heads also behind the scenes will try to land this burning political plane without crashing it and killing everyone on board. But the truth is we are at a crossroads, a permanent inflection point, and something has got to give.

The good news is, while unacceptably high, the risks of a really bad decision are still remote. It is much more probably that a peaceful end of the Proxy War could be in view. So if you want something to pray for today, that would be it. And as I always say, what is most likely to happen is the thing that nobody thought of.