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Today’s typical Tuesday takedown may not be so typical. Using the CPI number release for a typical Comex smackdown is nothing new. Being a Tuesday which is the cutoff day for the weekly COT reports(out on the subsequent Fri.) is standard operating procedure, as well. The tell will come, if after a huge contract volume washout, the metals are able to reverse most or all of their declines. Since I expect this will be the worst down day in the stock market in quite some time, we need to see a divergence from the metals. Are we finally going to see money fleeing the stock market begin to go into gold and then eventually silver? I believe the answer is yes. The question is, does that trend begin sometime today or later this week?
Thanks for these morning updates Chartsmaster
helps to crystaize what is going on. notwidthstanding all these raids Gold is still over the $2000 mark and has been for months
Notice the Markets are all RED
Russell 2000 pre market down nearly 4%
Whats that about ?
Using the slightly higher than guided expectations on the CPI report to pop the ridiculously over valued stock market bubble. This was totally set up and should be the end of the MAG 7 Mania. Stocks are going down hard. Expect the Biden takedown, war escalation, banking failures etc. etc. to be coming out soon. Need those excuses as to why the markets are going lower.
Pass the popcorn
If stocks fall as hard and as fast as I expect, we will get an emergency rate cut by the FED, possibly even before the March meeting. So does gold anticipate that or do we have to wait for the actual cut before it starts it’s climb?
In a mkt correction, doesn’t Gold go down initially.
Throwing the baby out with the bath water.
Margin calls and sentiment.
Absolutely, that is what we are seeing this morning and probably for the rest of today. If stocks accelerate lower the rest of this week and all the bulls finally realize the highs are in and we are going down big, some of that money will look for a place to hide. Some will go into t bills and some will start to buy gold.
DOLLAR INDEX ON THE RISE …THAT SINKS EVERYTHING
Or does that trend kick in 5 year down the road. Serious doubts that it will happen now. Gold and silver and the miners = DOA for a very long time
None of the speculation described above is correct.
There will be no rate cuts. Perhaps even more rate hikes.
I described the outlook for PMs after the SILJ bounce aborted in late Dec early January.
I said then, no … no PM launch (just ABC correction) but indicated a LT decline was in fact starting (multi month). We have a LONG way to go still.
Rates are being driven by inflation and inflation expectations.
Those who UNDERSTAND this process, know that’s being driven by spend happy Congress (Dems + RINOs and more) as well as The Current Regime, and Fed monetization. As long as federal government deficits are not reigned in, rates MUST go higher. Yes, there will be bounces. (Yields correct) But this will get ugly over time. Global perceptions of political instability here (bound to get worse) will not help.
>> We have a LONG way to go still.
Ouch!
I’m getting ready and starting some fishing with low bids. With the plan, if they go lower I will just have to add more few months down the road, if your scenario plays out as you expect. Thanks for sharing!
Nice narrative but doesn’t explain that the deficits have been rising throughout recent history including all the way down to when we had zero interest rates. While deficit spending has continued to increase, he big spending bills were already passed in 2021 2022 and 2023. Much of the actual spending has been saved for 2024 to try and help the Dems in election. Johnson and the repubs are slowing down the rate of spending. If the economy slows down(which it is) it won’t drive rates as high as if the economy were really strong. The inflation was caused by monetary policy not the deficit spending. Even though the FED is backdoor easing while at the same time doing their QT they are not any where near the level of money creation they were during 2020. Inflation while still present is not taking off. Rates aren’t going back to zero but aren’t going that much higher at least in 2024. When the BTFP goes away the FED has do do something to keep the system from crashing. Either they cut rates and or come up with some other mechanism to pretend and extend.
There may be a nice flush in front of us and a chance to get some silver stocks for longer term hold.
I plan to every day adjust my bid somewhere around 10-15% bellow previous close. If we get some stronger day wash capitulation flush at some point, I may get lucky and catch a few. (one of the ways to try to get some holdings close at bottom, sometimes works sometimes does not)
I would like to get some silver stocks such as Endeavor Silver, Avino Silver, maybe riskier Excellon and similar… These are all already cheap enough (Don Duret thinks EXK and ASM are from here around 20-25 bagers at gold 3k and silver $100) but I’m cheapskate 😉
Sitting tight on my uranium stocks through this correction, since they are all long term holds…
(typo) If we get some stronger ONE day wash OUT capitulation…