Silver – Trust Your Charts
Last month I posted a monthly chart pointing out a large and obvious symmetrical triangle that had formed on silver since March 2020. That chart pattern has now entered its fourth year and has neither broken down nor broken out. Lets trust our senses in such a case and apply patience rather than trying to anticipate moves before their time. Silver will have its day. Nobody doubts that. And when it comes I imagine it will be a glorious and noteworthy move.
While we wait though it can sometimes be frustrating (and costly) to be buying and then selling as price works its way along a fairly predictable course. But keep this chart in mind and try to exerise patience. The most important element here is time and that element above all is what is driving some in the precious metals community to madness. There is a terminus to this pattern coming by year end though so there is not that much longer to wait. Trust the chart and prepare to buy when the breakout arrives.
Until then….keep your powder dry and keep your sanity intact! Here is my updated chart. Hope it helps.
Sir Farmer,
The month ends on Monday, 7/31. So, if we get a monthly bar breaking out of this symmetrical triangle, would it count as a breakout?
Such 4% slams generally and historically are a panic move by the banksters.
In the Twitter/X world, someone pointed out that a close above 24.18 is all we needed today. I guess we got that since Comex closes the trading day at 1:30 pm Eastern.
https://twitter.com/ThePivotQueen/status/1683828936260698112
And as regards the “party that keeps on going forever” … see this from Gareth Soloway …
https://twitter.com/GarethSoloway/status/1684248501595537424
Not only is he a bear on the broader markets, he has been impeccable on his calls on Bitcoin.
Those two days in July, where it traded above 31.5k or so, made everyone jump and tell him he was wrong.
Even BTC is showing chances of a monthly reversal.
PMs, on the other hand, continue to see FBOs on the downside.
GL
I would look for a daily candle above 25.60 before calling it. But that’s just my method. You will want to see a full candle body above the line, not merely straddling the 25.60 level since price overshoots happen frequently. But a daily candle that has a daily low price above the line will not be considered a false breakout so consider that a buy signal. The monthly chart is for planning only. But don’t use it for trading since the waiting time between bars is too long. Instead, as soon as the monthly price exceeds the line then move down to a daily level chart and make a price judgement there to increase your certainty.
This symmetrical triangle is really long in the tooth. It could break out at any time really so be prepared. We are not the only ones watching that line. The Hedges see it too but won’t trade it until they are certain. Their entrance however can add a lot of pressure and get price moving quickly in the right direction as a short squeeze begins. Between you and I, the breakout is going to happen in August. Any day now in other words. I think it will be an explosive move and one that you find satisfying for a change.
To da moon…lol
Really really appreciate the detailed explanation, and your taking out the time to educate me (I bet many on the Tent know this already, not this amateur, though)
Regards,
GL
Thanks. Hope it helps. You may also want to keep an eye on Bitcoin for the start of a breakout tomorrow. My suspicion is metals, the dollar and bitcoin will all be rising together in August.
I’m jumping up and down hoping you are right. So many zigs and zags over the years that never seemed to amount to anything that I don’t count on anything anymore.
Nice chart. I have cycle low at approx your TRIANGLE APEX so that is interesting. But that is TIME while I am not sure about PRICE to hold within this triangle.
Thanks Nightingale. I am encouraged to say August is out breakout month because we have arrived at a monthly turn which I think holds significance. This could be a really big month but it also probably means we are getting war news none of us likes. The downside of metal bullishness sometimes means economic or political carnage. Maybe Biden will give Hunter amnesty before he gets the heave-ho and people will just throw up their hands in total disgust and take getting off the financial grid seriously.