For more than a year I have been bearish on oil. The Russian incursion in Ukraine spiked the price and that seemed like a likely blowoff top that was confirmed by the chart three months later when the price failed to take out the high and started back down. Since then I have continuosly posted about some of the reasons to explain the decline but cared more about what the chart was saying.(lower lows and lower highs) Despite spikes based on Saudi production cuts the trend continues lower. There is nothing to change the long term trend of the world using less oil. Consider this. Gasoline consumption has been dropping steadily for years and will continue to do so. A major component of this is likely based not so much on how fast EV’s replace IC vehicles but who are the early adopters. It makes sense that those who drive the most miles (ride share owners and long commuters) are going to switch to EV’s and hybrids first to save money on not having to buy gasoline. So even though the conversion to EV’s will be a slow but accelerating trend, the downside effect on gasoline consumption is front loaded. The long term trend of lower oil prices will continue. Maybe not as dramatic as this last year in nominal prices but definitely over time in inflation adjusted terms.