Loading ...* A Top in 2023? *
Could be, but I doubt it. Yes “the past is prologue”, but the US Government’s finances are far worse than 2008. And compared to then the Balance Sheet of the Federal Reserve is nothing less than rotting garbage.
Since the high last August at 2089 gold has undergone a corrective decline of 15.4%. This closely mirrors the corrective decline of 14.9% from December 2009 to February 2010. (Just to be clear, I’m not “prophesizing” here, but the percentage rise extrapolated from the recent high at 2,089.20 yields an eventual move to $3,271 – very close to the 2.618 Fibonacci extension to $3,344.) Of course if things get really crazy (does gold have more than 2 genders?) we could see prices north of $5,000 per ounce, but I wouldn’t plan on it.
At any rate, here’s how the last Cyclical Bull looked as it really began coming into its own after 2004.
That’s a top in 2023 with a price target of over $11,000. How is that not discounting the box the Fed is in? I agree with plunger on this, this is a different phase of the bull market and personally I am expecting things to go super parabolic between now and early to mid 2023. This was the whole point of Mike Maloney’s post—the current phase of the bull is mirroring the incredible bull run in the late 70’s in terms of structure.
Who knows what that top will represent. Hyperinflation? Chaos? The end of Bretton Woods II? A monetary reset?
nice chart! I started using the 100 ma more this year and found it to be an overlooked line.
Nautilus,
Reading over my post shows I didn’t clearly state my expectations: they have far more to do with time than price. Let me explain.
If there is divided government after the Georgia run-offs we could see resistance to the NECESSARY fiscal largess needed to doom the Dollar and send gold above $8,000 or even higher. In such an impasse the mountain of debt could simply implode before it can be inflated away, giving the top in gold a much shorter price peak as well as a run measured in time. The Fibo target of $3,344 in such a case might well come by 2022! But I’m thinking Maloney could be right since the current situation is looking to me as the approaching end-game. Dan Oliver has written analytically well concerning each of three possible outcomes. Read the links below.
http://www.myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Research_2020_04_13.pdf
http://www.myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Research_2020_07_13.pdf
And more recently he’s written about the political link with a Dollar collapse and gold: http://www.myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Research_2020_12_11.pdf
I don’t completely disagree with you or Plunger except I’m not counting on gold above $5,000 per ounce. At that level I think the collapse will be full-on and a new system will be born – a system that won’t be favorable to holders of gold. I plan to liquidate about 3/4ths of any holdings at such a time.