Loading ...Armstrong’s ECM Cycles
Martin Armstrong is somewhat spotty in the short term but his longer-term stuff is spot on IMO. His outlook over the next decade is also very similar to that of the Fourth Turning generational theory by Strauss & Howe. My second chart below shows the ECM in favor of Private Institutions will peak in 2032 just when Faith in Public Institution’s bottoms.
If the combined outlook from these two is correct, it’s time to have a financial plan and buckle up as the next 8-12 years is going to be a complete shit show…
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/this-is-what-schwab-is-creating/
Economic Confidence ?
Looks like from this chart it is UP into 2028
what am I missing ?
Fully, The ECM has predicted the decline in confidence of Government Institutions towards Private institutions (e.g. Companies and the Stock Market) that has been building since 1981 according to Armstrong.
I added a second Armstrong chart that shows the Private Peak will occur in 2032. After that, Public institutions will need to be completely rebuilt as faith in the Private Sector will peak and start a long decline. This also lines up with the Fourth Turning that predicts public institutions will collapse in a Crisis climax sometime in the next 8-12 years. After that, comes a First Turning, which is a Rebirth phase. The US has had three previous Fourth Turnings or Crisis Phases that were all 80-90 years apart. The Revolutionary War, Civil War, Great Depression & WWI were previous Fourth Turnings and we are now in the middle of our next one. If correct, until we emerge from this Fourth Turning it is going to be a complete shit show that could likely end in a Major War (China, Russia, Iran…).
Contrary to popular opinion on this site, all financial assets (Stocks, Gold, Oil, Cryptos, etc.) will be headed much higher into 2021 once they confirm their next ICL has formed (only Crypto’s have confirmed an ICL has formed).
Armstrong is saying we head down into 2022 for the global economy, before we find a base.
Although as you say, private assets could surge higher.
Yes, the Stock Market is completely disconnected from the “Real Economy” and I expect that to continue into the spring of 2021 at the very least when realization sets in that this will be one nasty global recession. Many pundits are arguing over a “V” shaped vs a “U” shaped recovery when it is actually an “L” shaped recovery where L stands for Liquidity from the Fed.
BTW, the last three 4th Turnings saw continuity of leadership through the crisis phase which is another reason, I believe Trump will win re-election.
The three previous leaders were Washington, Lincoln / Grant and FDR. None of these leaders, regardless of your views on them, were Tourists in the White House (in Wasington’s Case, his leadership period started during the war and ended with two terms as President). Out of the Revolutionary War, we had to replace the British Monarchy with a new form of government that started with the Constitution and the separation of powers within the various Branches of Government.
My only hope is that Trump takes a much more active role and focuses his energy on trying to help all Americans through the Climax phase of this 4th Turning. Hopefully he can get past his current desire to punish anyone who has opposed him. Vindictive revenge, IMO will not help the country through the Climax phase of a Fourth Turning.
“Hopefully he can get past his current desire to punish anyone who has opposed him.”
I think Trump is a narcissistic asshole, but I’m definitely going to vote for him. His opponents are bigger liars than him AND most of them are outright criminals who are manifestly guilty of sedition. I don’t see it as “revenge” to demand that they are prosecuted for such crimes. No president should have to suffer such assault by the heads of the US Justice Department and the CIA.
In agreement with you Boobooman
BooBooMan, Guilty of sedition is not really a sure thing based on what I have seen from various sources including here. If the Justice Dept can prove it, then so be it. To declare anyone guilty of sedition before a trial even starts is a bit of a stretch in my book. Lets see what comes out of Barr & Durham’s Grand Jury first to see what indictments come out as a first step.
Looking at that Chart you would have thought 1981 would have been far worse than 1929
But for me as a young 30 year old forging my career…I dont think the early 80’s were remarkable at all
Seriously wtf with this economic cycle from Armstrong.
Yes Interest rates went sky high to corral inflation and there was economic contraction as over leveraged people lost businesses
But Over all There were not bread lines and soup kitchens and massive unemployment
Life was pretty normal for most…and terrific for me .
Whats up with that HUGE drop in the early 80s
Again I say…look at that chart and the line is UP from 2020 to 2024.
If this is the private wave then economic confidence has bottomed and is on the way up
I don’t see any panic in that chart.
While I agree that 1981 was nowhere as bad as the Great Depression,that is not the point of the ECM. 1934 marked the bottom of confidence in the Private Sector after the 1929 Crash and the start of the rise of confidence in Public Institutions that peaked in 1981, with the election of Ronald Reagan. 1981 then, marked the start of the rise in faith of the Private Sector and the start of the current Stock Bull Market. It was also the start of the decline of confidence in Public Institutions which will bottom in 2032.
Trump, for example, takes shots at almost every part of his administration (CDC, CIA, FBI, Justice Dept, State Dept, etc.) Perhaps he has spared the Military but certainly not its leaders. I am not saying he is not justified in his views in any way. What I am saying is that everything we are seeing is playing out for him in front of our Eyes according to both the ECM and the Fourth Turning.
Trump himself as a Private Businessman, has the “Private” confidence of at least 50% of the population while Biden, who expresses confidence in Public Institutions, is on the wrong side of the ECM which is one of many reasons I believe he will not be elected.
Surf has that right. ECM is a nebulous concept in its application. I think Armstrong measures it using pi, but often seems to attach the turns in retrospect. I draw parallels to high and low tides that can be tough to spot in real time with certainty. Its about sentiment with respect to social attitudes and mood.
As Surf also noted early on, he record is stronger on longer term shifts and patterns. Short term is a crap shoot and often he merely sets lines in the sand for where one turn OR THE OTHER can be confirmed after the fact.
Thanks Surf and Pedro
This is a very useful discussion