Loading ...Surf’s Energy Update
On Crude Oil, Crude Producers, NatGas and Uranium is a freebie this weekend. I am expecting lower lows in all three over the coming weeks. This weekend’s updates are featuring a long term look across all markets.
On Gold, I will cover its 4 Year Cycle this weekend as this is the longest that I track. Some say Gold has an 8 Year Cycle but that is simply two of its 4 Year Cycles.
https://surfcity.co/2020/07/05/energy-crude-oil-natgas-uranium-mid-week-update-8/
Added: From the question in the comments section, Descending Triangles with Flat Bottoms are normally Bearish in an uptrend but there are exceptions. Falling Triangles (or Bull Flags) in an uptrend are usually Bullish (there is a subtle difference between the two). See attached GDX Weekly chart that shows both a Descending and Falling Triangle. My second chart is for the Current Gold Intermediate Cycle where it formed a Descending Triangle but broke to the upside so there are exceptions to the guidelines (there are no absolute rules with markets as that would be too easy). 😉
Thanks! Fascinating and well-reasoned, as usual.
Thanks for this Surf. Curious why you think the descending wedge on the Cameco chart is bearish.
Here are a couple of reference points on Decesending Triangles or Wedges. The link below is from Investopedia but you can also reference Page 59 of the Classic Edwards & MaGee Technical Analysis handbook or “Bible” as some call it. Also from a Cycle’s standpoint, short-term Trading Cycle Low #2 (TCL2) made a lower low than TCL1 (see my Daily chart). Once this happens, the cycle norm is that this signals that the longer 6 Month Intermediate Cycle has topped and, after the next bounce, will start moving into its longer term Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL). Hope this helps. 😉
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/descendingtriangle.asp
Lastly, in an uptrend, Ascending Triangles are normally Bullish but in an uptrend, Descending Triangles are normally Bearish. I will add a chart on Gold that will show this.
Ah, apologies, I squinted at the chart on my phone screen and misread it as a possible bull flag, but on closer inspection it does appear to be a bearish triangle in the making. That support line will be the key, if/when it breaks to the downside.
Agreed the lower suport line is critical. If my short term Trading Cycle counts are correct (I think they are), then this current bounce in CCJ should be relatively short lived before moving to the downside with more of an impulse move.