Loading ...Yield spread 30yr to 5yr vs 10 yr to 2yr
All maturities s yield spreads are diverging. In financial cycle these longer maturity vs shorter maturity should not diverge. In the past they have been in positive relation.
From 2000 to 2011 these have been in good coorelation. PM sector was in bull trend during widening phase.
Financial market to clear the divergence before PM sector establishes it trend.
Most watched yield curve 10 yr to 3 month has been steeppining.
Last time yield curve turnned up from inverted to widening began in June 2007 Gold rose to all time high in Jan -Feb 2008 to $1008
Great charts, Bikoo.
On your left chart, comparing the two yield spreads, I also see a (slight) positive divergence of the 30/5 yr vs the 10/2 starting around May of 2000, which preceded a great 3-yr run in the miners. Your chart seems to be showing a larger version of that now.
Great eye!! yes there was divergence back then also. Lived thru 2003 indecision.
I am tuned into the year 2000, because I went long miners there for a great 3-yr run. But I have been hesitant to compare that environment to the current one because there are differences, and analogues rarely pan out anyway. But your chart tells me that the current situation might be similar to 2000 after all, because the divergence in spreads comes after both spreads flatten at the bottom of your chart. Interesting!
great point. Plus as one can see the 10yr to 3month has broken out to upside. Spreads may lag for a while. Do not forget this chart is weekly 30ema. That takes some time.