Loading ...SPX Bull Case alive
Bull case is still in play based on the price action I saw into the close today. Price closed above the Daily 50ma and Weekly 10ma. Both these key cycle moving averages were severely tested today but held with strong reversal candles into the close.
My Time & Price Cycle models indicate a short term TCL/DCL should be very close (this week or next), and I am expecting new ATH’s in the weeks ahead. Below is a link to today’s play by play action over at Surf City.
https://surfcity.co/2019/05/10/spx-update-11/
The decline off the highs has been VERY tricky to decipher via EW.
Lots of abc’s within the legs down. If we topped, its potentially a leading diagonal where w1 w3 and w5 are all three internally with 1 and 4 overlapping. SPX did this in Oct 2007 also.
Moments ago, DJT slapped tariffs on ANOTHER $300B in imports, on top of those applied last night. Ie, the rest. He means business, and I assume he believes this the only way they will take him seriously. He wants real US export growth (to China), not (more) empty assurances.
Best EW count I have calls for a LARGE drop Monday, that might get you your low.
Absent a deal, the next rally could be a 2 … not a 5 to new highs. We should know by Tuesday where we’re headed.
We need to be a little careful here as I think it may well be a little early to declare the DCL is in for stocks.
My time counts are different to the “experts”. They are suggesting we are entering the timing band for a DCL, but given the last couple have been around 47 calendar days I think this one could extend to around 55 calendar days = 19 May = FM
So a couple of days up early this week before a fall into a DCL later this week or early next.
So again patience is the key.
I remain bullish but we are very late in the weekly cycle, although some stocks (and Russell 2000) may have printed failed daily cycles implying an early ICL – time will tell.