Goldtent TA Paradise

USD Super Cycle update

1. Curly Top says:

   July 9, 2018 - 11:14 am at 11:14 am

   Hi Surf. Thanks for the post. Is the dollar’s cycle, or even supercycle derivative of the general commodity/PM cycle, or something unto itself? What’s the dog and what’s the tail?

   • Surf City says:

     July 9, 2018 - 4:18 pm at 4:18 pm

     Curly Top, Great question and it my belief that the USD is the key driver of Commodity/PM cycles. Correlations do not always hold but the charts do show that PM’s & commodities typically boom once the USD’s Super Cycle has topped.

     • Curly Top says:

       July 9, 2018 - 7:05 pm at 7:05 pm

       I fundamentally view currency and commodity as being the same thing, one more liquid than the other. As such, I expect them to boom and bust together like gold and wheat will, and not be negatively correlated as wheat and the dollar will be. Perhaps that’s what distinguishes an unbacked currency from a backed one. But if what I believe is right,then these unbacked currencies aren’t really currencies at all, as they don’t behave as commodities do. But I suppose that’s a technicality of our modern era.
       I’m always searching for utility for the dollar index but find it hard to see any. I’m glad you can use it to more closely pinpoint the start of pm/commodity booms.

       Thanks.

2. Northstar says:

   July 9, 2018 - 6:28 pm at 6:28 pm

   Thanks Surf. I’m very much in agreement with your analysis.