Very interesting to see the mood in the tent right now. Some are looking up, but, I think, many more are looking down. I’m trying not to be an eternal optimist, and I certainly do take all the bearish views on board. Having said that, I do find Graddhys work on the dollar compelling, and the fundamentals (to me at least), do seem to support a rising gold price (negative real rates especially). You could look at the following HUI chart and be very concerned…

If you ‘zoom out’ a bit though, things look a lot less concerning…

If we fail at the 183 area, I would turn bearish in a heartbeat. If not, it’s super-bullish. The equivalent chart for gold shows that it’s smaller triangle hasn’t broken to the downside yet, and it’s larger triangle has support at around $1150.

 

So how’s this for a possible scenario – gold drops to the $1240 area taking it to it’s support level. In the process, HUI drops to the 183 area, taking it to major support. That really would be the point at which we find out if this has all been a mirage, or whether we truly are in a new PM bull. That time is fast approaching.

Finally (and apologies, but I can’t remember who to credit for posting the first chart previously), these are partly what’s behind my optimism.

1) Cycles – The bottom of the ‘red’ cycle marks the beginning of a new upleg. The bottom of the ‘green’ cycle marks a top. Both are indicating a new upleg getting underway.

2) Similarities to 2008 – here I’ve pulled together some charts from my recent posts.