Loading ...Where I’m Coming From
First Off I am a Goldophile like most of you here. I want the Price of Gold to Go UP.
I follow it every day. have been for 25 years. Made a bundle and Lost a bundle 3 times.
Until I hooked up With Rambus in Nov 2011 I had no clue how this all worked…I just figured the PTB were screwing up the world monetary system and gold had to go UP…and PM Stocks would go up multiples of the Gold Rise.
Working with Rambus , he convinced me in 2012 to sell all my 50 PM Miners.
It was tough …because I knew every one of them intimately and they were my babies.
After watching him call the 2008 crash way ahead of time in real time posting charts for free at Goldtent ( which was a rabid goldbug site at the time)..and after running him off that board for having the audacity to say HUI could go to 150 when it was 450…and then watching exactly that happen to my horror…I was willing to listen when he approached me privately to warn yet again of an impending potential drop in 2011-2012. I don’t know why he gave me a second chance, after all that animosity he was subjected to at Goldtent but This time I was willing to listen. The others on the board …not so much….so push came to shove and we started up Rambus Chartology and parted ways with the regulars at Goldtent as they all upped and moved on literally one night to a new board, leaving Audept and I with a completely empty Board and some really bad blood with our former friends.
I remember posting at the Empty Tent that night that Goldtent was to go in a new direction. I had no clue what direction but we decide to see if we could attract a Gold Oriented TA Community …and slowly we started to attract some really good TA Guys. Eagle Seagle was first. .and after a period of very little activity we started to grow and here we are still being true to our mission
https://goldtadise.com/?p=338520
Well thank goodness I sold that PF…all in an hour… one day… as Rambus “What IF” warning yet again proved correct and the HUI crashed soon after. Many former friends lost it all yet again in this crash.
To see some of these calls please follow this link.
https://rambus1.com/2014/11/16/what-is-rambus-chartology-all-about/
Now we have been fortunate to grow this Community and add Spock and SurfCity / Norvast to the mix.
Again I have been fortunate to make some great trades in Spocks Rocks and am doing even better than ever following the Cycles guys.
Not to mention Plunger and Graddhy and Eagle and the and all of the excellent posters who do their work here for free.
NOW finally to the point.
Rambus is quite cautious on the PMs here , mostly because of his concern for the Dollar which he believes is in Bull Mode. His views are also held by Plunger via his Market History Post Bubble Contraction Work. The others Graddhy Norvast Spock and Surf all see an imminent long term TOP in the Dollar and of course a resuming of the Gold Bull .
All these guys have done extensive work and all of the work has merit. Every time I read something on the dollar I am convinced at that moment.
I am still in Many of the Rocks and really really want the Dollar bears to be right.
However having bet against Rambus and lost big in the past I cannot discount his concerns here.
Here are 2 Monthly Charts we must consider at least …As Always presented in the spirit of all for one and one for all.
What happens IF the Yen appreciates verses the USD, while the EURO depreciates?
US Dollar goes higher / GOLD goes higher
Just started happening recently (as you have noted in the past few days) and people have been wondering how GOLD is moving higher with a stronger US Dollar
So True Patty. The Yen Chart looks like it wants to go up for sure.
And Gold Follows the YEN..The Yen is just 17% of the DX and the Euro is 57%.
So yes I am watching this . Thanks for bring that up. Interesting Times.
John Exter’s pyramid comes to mind. When we have a crisis of confidence, safe haven assets like USD/Gold are sought after.
Some people long Treasurys long Dollar as a trade.
Sir Fully, I echo your dilemma. Both gold/usd bull/bear camps have their own compelling arguments. It’s really hard to get a good read on what’s going on these days. No offence intended against our resident experts, but one phrase really sticks out in my mind….”nobody knows anything”
IMHO keeping an open mind on the various possibilities, being mindful of the potential pitfalls goes a long way to protect our wealth in the long haul.
Amen Marauder
cheers
What about the French elections?
The key dates are 23 Apr (round 1) and 07 May (round 2) which I have as turn dates for the SPX leading to a low for the SPX around the 20 May (which I have as a daily cycle high for gold)
What impact will a Marine Le Pen victory have on the Euro and gold?
Ya the French! Le Pen wants to exit the euro so any win by her party will dive the euro and perhaps gold gets a flight to safety bid . Sure looks like a bull flag on the us dollar chart. I cannot see a lower gold spike to last long at all. Gotta think about Euro down and how banks will manage thru as well.
FCG,
For us newcomers, Thank You for sharing not only some of the history of Goldtent TA, but your own personal trading trials and tribulations. I greatly appreciate the honesty of you and others in sharing your past experiences and helping us all in developing new ideas and strategies.
I would like to think that all views are welcome here, and ‘gold to $700′ or gold to $10,000’ is ok, as long as it’s presented with a good reasoned case, and some good chartology. The future is not easy to predict with any degree of certainty.
Staying positive on the juniors at the moment as they do seem to be rising slowly in most cases (1-2% a day with a few like Banro leaping up 8-10%) and if they really start to go up I think it will be like early 2016 and it will be quick. Definite risk to the downside, but the same with the SM at the moment, with one wrong step by Trump kicking the bear market off.
So, 50% in cash and a spread portfolio of miners and watching every day. Also watching UVXY as if that goes it may rocket higher soon.
Very uncertain times and we are probably facing major change as in the 70’s but what will be the catalyst this time that pushes inflation up and starts the whole cycle again?
I think it is good that many like Rambus are cautious, as we all should be. last time we were not the miners fell like a stone last summer. At that time the posts on here suggested that the majority were watching for the HUI to go to the moon! We need a wall of worry like the SM has had for the last few years and a hated bull market in PMs, that’s the ticket for a big rise 🙂
1/
Nothing is certain. Any number of positions can be argued, especially with charts chosen to fit the opinion (for example, time frames convenient for one’s prejudices, a massive bunch of bias-convenient squiggly lines etc). Looking at a lot of charts in different time frames does help though.
2/
There is absolutely no reason whatsoever why the dollar and gold have to move in opposite directions at least for relatively short periods forever and ever. Absolutely none.
There are of course reasons why they will tend to move in opposite directions, as they usually have.
3/ Good about this site is divergent opinions. Always good (if you have time–Godzilla is not about to chomp down on you and you have to escape, or if you have projects to do) is to look at situations from multiple perspectives.
Still wonderful if flawed is Ch. 3 of On Liberty by JS Mill (a classical liberal, not a fake one, as opposed to many of today’s “liberals”), where Mill points to the positive value of taking seriously all contending arguments, even those that are blatantly flawed. One can often strengthen one’s own understanding–or improve it–by looking from contending perspectives. Sometimes one switches altogether.
Great post by the way Fully. Always good to get an overview of the issues and great back story.
Nice post, like many have said, its impossible to tell. Also easy to get fooled & chopped around in the short term. Seems like so many charts are at an inflection point right now. Sometimes cash is best until the picture gets more clear.
thank you fgc for your candid post.charts are what they are,and tell different tales.
us mere mortals should be very open minded and consider all options as is the case now
jeffrey christian,a well known commodities analyst,became the enemy of the “people”six years ago for daring to say that gold is going down.in this interview he is calling a turn around.
https://www.macrovoices.com/248-jeffrey-christian-secular-buy-call-on-gold
Wow…thanks Electrum
yes Jeffrey Christian was the arch enemy back in the Day. made so by GATA ( Bill Murphy) and the gang
I bought into that too. He was deemed to be a shill for the Bad Guys who manipulate gold all day.
Good to see he is getting Bullish. Thanks again
you are welcome! i knew you would like it.we wont get fooled again!
Multiple divergent hypotheses are in keeping with Mr Christian’s opinions, including–
1. He makes sound, astute, honest analyses and may be right now.
2. He was right more or less by chance. (If you make decisions by flipping a coin you can sometimes get it over and over again, decision after decision. Arguably the coin does better than some analysts and newsletter writers. In contrast, he does in fact seem to have a superb recent record.)
3. GATA was right about him and much else. Now his underwriters want to sucker people into buying Au-related things in order to hit them hard again.
4. GATA was right about him and much else. Now his paymasters have reversed their positions and want his help to manipulate in the opposite direction.
5. Other, including combinations of the above.