Loading ...TLT
As I have stated already I am having a hard time getting a good read on the ancient metal of kings, I posted some longer term Wolfe waves last night that have some nasty implications to go along with Rambus’s dollar rout, this needs to be posted and maybe some people can comment on this chart that know more than I do about bonds. If TLT heads down do we see gold follow like it has been in the past or do we get a break of correlation? My take is that it all depends on the severity of the crisis. Feedback please.
my take is that common sense approach of the normal functions of these forces will be null and void due to the severe crisis of events and loss of confidence. Bonds +debt and nobody can take anymore on and hard to push it as no buyers happening. Printing the cash for it = QE. Gold already finally rising in all major currencies including the last and mighty us$. Just need the confidence to fall more in Europe and why won’t it.? jmho
I don’t know how things are going to play out in the PM space with respect to the ST. As of now it looks like a correction has begun but how deep or
shallow that is, is not clear.
I see the same thing you’re seeing though, pretty much. I’m hoping for a ST correction in the miners, rally back up to $1260-$1280, then a dump with
new post 2011 lows being made in gold during the year. However, if TLT were to keep dropping from here, the rally we’re seen in the miners since
late December will turn out to have been a dead cat bounce.
If you want what I consider to be great macro background, which goes into detail on the $USD and therefore gold because the latter is effectively
anti-$USD, listen to this interview and go through the accompanying slide deck:
https://www.macrovoices.com/220-julian-brigden
Thanks guys for the input.
I think you are spot on Randy, I think it is all about how severe the sell off is and hence if it is a crisis or not.