Goldtent TA Paradise

USD Cycle Update

1. Mserr says:

   January 5, 2017 - 4:50 pm at 4:50 pm

   So we would expect to hit 99 or so. And then we’ll see ?

   • Surf City says:

     January 5, 2017 - 6:57 pm at 6:57 pm

     Yes a move in Price to 99, which would be a lower TC Low would almost always indicate that the USD’s longer Intermediate Cycle had also topped.

2. Northstar says:

   January 5, 2017 - 5:36 pm at 5:36 pm

   Thanks for the update.

3. Mserr says:

   January 5, 2017 - 5:50 pm at 5:50 pm

   Do we have a left translated cycle ?

   If so what does that portend ?

   • Surf City says:

     January 5, 2017 - 6:52 pm at 6:52 pm

     Mserr, Great question. “Left” and “Right” Translated Cycles refer to Time which is important but a “Failed” Cycle refers to Price where the cycle, regardless of length makes a lower low. Let me explain:

     A Right Translated Cycle indicates that Price spends more Time going up and less Time going down over the length of the cycle while a Left Translated cycle is the opposite (i.e. Price spends more Time going down than up). When an asset spends more Time with Price going down than up you usually also see a Cycle Fail and make a lower low. Usually but not always so, a Failed cycle, that makes a lower low in Price, is more important in terms of future direction.

     It is very possible for an asset as it is possible to have a Left Translated Cycle that does not Fail and a Right Translated Cycle that does fail. Confusing perhaps but here are several very recent examples:

     1) The SPX Intermediate Cycle out of the Brexit IC Low was Left Translated into the Election Night low but did not Fail as it made a higher IC Low than the Brexit Low. It was Left Translated as Price made a high after on 1.5 months of Time and then took 3 months to find the next IC Low but it was a higher low.
     2) Gold’s move into its YCL, by contrast, was a Left Translated Intermediate Cycle that Failed. Out of the late May IC Low, Gold’s next Intermediate Cycle spent just over 1 month in Time going up into early July and then almost 5 months going down. It also was a Failed IC as it made a lower IC Low.
     3) Within the previously mentioned Gold IC, there was also a shorter term Trading Cycle that started in early October that was Right Translated but then rolled over on Election night and Failed into a lower TC Low. My chart work shows this Trading Cycle was Right Translated as it topped on day 23 on the US Election but then Failed on day 26 after making a lower TC Low.

     Confusing perhaps, but Cycle Failure is more important in my book to track. To that end, the USD must have a short term Trading Cycle failure in order to trigger the topping process of the USD’s longer Intermediate Cycle.

4. Mserr says:

   January 5, 2017 - 7:43 pm at 7:43 pm

   You explainwd it clearly. Makes sense. Thanks

5. Mserr says:

   January 5, 2017 - 7:58 pm at 7:58 pm

   Só a failure would need to see 99 hit ?