Loading ...Question for gold tent-ers on the gold stock situation and potential correction.
A question:
If the HUI (or GDX or GDXJ or whatever individual stock one might choose – perhaps excluding certain individual juniors where the ‘story’ might drive the price) might be due for a correction at some point (perhaps soon?) but it is quite possible that there could be a significant further move up before such a correction ensues, what are the chances that the HUI continues to move up for a while and then corrects down to a LOWER value than it is at now?
In other words, at some point even if the HUI continues up for a while longer, will there be a better buy point further down the line after a significant correction? Are we already in that situation?
I would just like a short answer or a link to a relevant article giving a longer answer if there is one. Obviously opinions might vary but I hope you can see the point of my question. My answer to the question would be: I have no idea. That’s why I am asking. 🙂
By the way, I did watch the videos from the Gann people that I think were linked from this site a while ago that compared today with the previous gold stock cyclical bull markets of the past 20-30 years.
Dave: the future is unknowable. Maybe there will be a better buy point, maybe there won’t be. Have a plan and trade your plan.
Not likely IMO at such an early stage of the cycle recovery (2000-2030 with a mid cycle correction)
20011 – 2015 was a significant mid cycle correction and gold needs to recover quickly – IMO more quickly than in the 2008 credit induced correction.
But use 2008-2009 as an example – we are currently around 08 July 2009 in a “consolidation” period before moving higher.
Spock is correct “sit tight and prosper”!
1. I thought the question was good. I looked at the Gann thing as well and considered it intelligent and well informed.
Just today I was looking at the way the stocks traded and noted quite a dispersion of ups and downs in the PM stocks (esp the smaller ones). I’ve learned to suspect that such a dispersion sometimes heralds a pause or a directional change, albeit a tiny one.
2. As I read it, traderscott’s answer came to my mind as the proper answer, except that I would not have worded it as perfectly.
3. For various reasons, which I can’t generally defend well, I personally happen to go with norvast and thus also Spock’s position of sitting, but don’t necessarily hold that against the strategy. Spock I believe has posted a public chart fairly recently showing not a lot of congestion in something like small PM share prices or CDNX until rather higher than here assuming it rises above here, and Plunger as well I think. By my memory the charts could to be sure be used to argue that things could get stalled here or bounce down rather than climbing through to the next level of congestion way higher. Not the way things have been trading though, I think. So far this year, even in the declines, even the tiny companies, even the ones not recommended, have tended not to be easy to buy cheaply, and not just ones recommended by Spock or ones that I think are well known. I place an order at the asked price and it will not get filled quickly, or filled only partially. That sort of thing. At least so far–including yesterday and today. Maybe that changes tomorrow. To me, one of the indications to sit.