Loading ...Rising Wedge into Mega Resistance – Natgas Example
Good example of why risk/reward favors selling these setups with bearish structure and weakening internals (moneyflow/momentum). Yes, these charts look like the miner set up right now…and they don’t usually resolve gently in their correction.
My DGAZ is back profitable with my average cost at the green line. DGAZ up more than 20% today.
Will post later an update of what I’m seeing for the miners but for now all my miner charts analysis from Fri are playing out as expected, including the gap up to resistance.
Good deal Mark. my thought this morning is that after studying bradley graphs this weekend…looks like all the markets are going to turn between now and July 21st…and then continue that trend into late november of this year…
also please post your miner analysis as I think the time is approaching when these miners will start a reversals also
Mark, are you still holding jdst? Have you averaged down? Is the current level of 6.63 a good entry point if I want to hedge my miners? Thanks in advance.
Comments on bearish positioning in a bull market…. Bull markets of course undergo corrections and shake outs from time to time. Robert Rhea described these as secondary reactions. They tend to last 3 weeks to 3 months. They are the most prominent in phase II of the 3 phases of a bull. They are very difficult to time and occur normally when most holders agree that price is likely to continue its rise.
What Mark is doing, if I understand correctly, is essentially trying to time one of these moves using resistance levels and internal technical weakness as a yardstick to guide the timing. This may very well work out, but it requires a traders mindset to be successful.
It is my suggestion that very few of us will be successful in this endeavor. For one it puts us trading against the primary trend, which proves very difficult for the most of us. As a retail non-professional, part time investor frankly I have never been very successful pursuing this line of strategy. Its not that I am not attracted to doing it, I wish I could since its exciting and rewarding if one can stick the trade. I would love to be the next Jesse Livermore (minus the suicide), but reality dictates its not going to happen.
Instead, I find myself at the beginning of a bull market. A bull that I believe will be a knock your socks off lifetime opportunity to profit if I can capture the trend. Got that? I said capture the full extend of the move. There are some here that praise Savage’s bottom call back in January. Yeah that was the one among the numerous he made throughout the bear market! Well, what good did his bottom call do when he immediately bailed out of his position waiting for the impending correction? Again one wants to capture the move. That’s my personal strategy, born of experience, knowing that with my limitations of having a full time job, and being a non-proffessional investor I would likely miss the timing to get back in.
Keep in mind that in a bull market resistance levels give way and dissolve against the primary trend, just as in a bear market support levels give way to the primary trend. Almost by definition if one sells at resistance levels he will miss the majority of the move to the upside. That’s not to say occasionally he wont stick the short term move to the downside, however its my judgement that the more important strategy is to capture the upside move.
Now there will be a time when I attempt to time the bull, but I am not there yet. If I can be prescient enough to perceive when the end of Phase I arrives, yes I will sell. But I don’t think the time is now.
I respect Mark’s previous trades and work he has done on the markets, but am suggesting his approach will be successful for only a limited group. These comments are written in the spirit of healthy collegial debate to help define ones strategy going forward.