I have posted a couple of times that I believe that the Gold and Miner Intermediate Cycles have diverged here. This is very subtle as their shorter term trading cycles are somewhat in sync but their longer term Intermediate Cycles are several weeks out of sync (by perhaps 6-8 weeks). I bring this up because something very similar happened at the start of Gold’s Secular Bull in the 2000 to 2001 period (see my last two charts).

In any case, I have Gold in week 18 of its IC and the Miners (GDX as a proxy) only in week 11. Many Cycle newsletters only track Gold’s Cycle, assuming that the Miners are always in sync. This approach may work 95% of the time, but I see evidence of Cycle divergences between Gold and the Miners at the start of Bull Market moves.

Screenshot 2016-04-09 08.44.26 Screenshot 2016-04-09 08.37.22

Here are my circa 1999 – 2001 Fractal’s for Gold and the Miners. Note that the Miners led Gold out of its Secular Bear Market low by one full Intermediate Cycle. The current divergence, if it holds, is far more subtle.

Gold Round Bottom 2016-02-03 at 7.26.52 PM HUI V Bottom 2016-02-03 at 7.23.05 PM