Loading ...Gold Trading Cycle Failure
By my count, Gold’s 4th Trading Cycle (TC4) just failed on day 6 (i.e. made a lower low than TC3).
As I had mentioned in a previous post, TC4’s failure was a certainty from my perspective but I thought perhaps we would bounce at the trend line a day or two longer. A TC failure signals the start the decline into the next Intermediate Cycle low, which I expect in the early to mid-April timeframe.
FWIW, I am expecting Gold and the Miners to make a higher IC Low than in January but I still loaded the boat with positions in JDST and GLL (may add ZSL tomorrow). Action could be choppy but once a Trading Cycle fails, the price action has a downside bias even in a sideways chop into a Bull Flag perhaps.
OK Surf: This is very instructive.
So this IC ( Intermediate Cycle) which started beginning of December had 3 TCs (Trading Cycles) but TC3 has now failed …so the prediction is we drop to a new low in April which will be Above the
December Lows . Then a new IC begins .
1…. What is the period we are now in called ? TC4 ? and extension of TC3 ?
2…Is it reasonable This IC Bottom could be shallow …at the 38 Fib …1190ish ?
tia
Fully, The Norm is for Gold to have 4 shorter term Trading Cycles inside each longer term 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle (IC’s have been running closer to 5 months over the past year). TC3 did not fail on my chart as it made a higher high and a higher low than TC2 (see chart).
TC4, however, made a lower high and more importantly, a lower low on just day 6. During the long Bear most IC failed in TC3 and started their downtrend after just 8-11 weeks of an uptrend. After the TC3 failures, you would get a very brief 3-6 day rally int TC4 followed by the bloodbath decline into the next IC Low which was almost always a lower low than the previous IC.
This IC was very different as it made a higher IC High for the first time in 4+ years and it topped in week 15, the longest uptrend in over 4+ years while also breaking several important downtrend resistance lines. That said, 1190-1166 could be tested in this IC low but I do not expect a higher IC Low sometime in early to mid-April.
Surf,
Thanks for the update. Here’s more confirmation:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/market-closing-for-the-week-today/