Loading ...Gold Intermediate Cycle thoughts
Here is the thing about Bressert Cycles. In order for an Asset to move into an Intermediate Cycle Low, one or more Trading Cycles MUST fail (i.e. make a lower TC Low than the previous one). That is a Fact. I am not saying things will play out as my chart depicts but most Gold Intermediate Cycles have 4 Trading Cycles and TC1, TC2 and TC3 did not Fail during this IC.
During the long Bear most of Gold’s ICs almost always failed in TC3 and then TC4 would be the real Crash and Burn (Wave 5 down in EW Speak). TC3 did not fail here so that leaves only TC4 (unless we get a TC5 which I have not seen is some time).
The IC Low can be Bullish if it makes a Higher Low than Dec 2015 which I very much expect. We are now in TC4 and this is very likely the Trading Cycle that will Fail leading to the IC Low I expect in the April timeframe. If my pattern below is accurate, this would be very Bullish.
Nothing goes straight up and a pullback is healthy to shake out the weak hands and recharge Investor Sentiment. That is what Cycles are all about. Markets are all about investor sentiment and for them to work, you need both Buyers and Sellers.
Excellent..Even I understand
🙂
Conclusions and further observations
Since corporate earnings are rising with the stock market only 50% of the time, they are not the determining factor to create and/or sustain bull markets. Investor confidence in the economy, or an individual company, along with future expectations drive bull markets. Investor sentiment is the driving force. Individual stocks can sell at multiples in the 100’s, if confidence in future growth is strong. While stocks can sell at multiples in the single digits, if confidence in future growth is lacking.
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/page/2/
Exactly, Cycles and Elliott Wave theory are similar with respect to how they flow with Investor Sentiment.