Loading ...WTIC Crude Cycle
Crude is on day 20 of its Trading Cycle (TC) and what sure looks like a new 6 month Intermediate Cycle (IC) as well. WTIC TCs last 36-46 days low to low on average.
To confirm a new IC, Crude should move above my Red IC Downtrend line but Crude is also in a spot were we sometime see a half cycle TC Low. The problem that I see is that my small blue line is the current TC uptrend line and it is very steep to sustain over the longer term IC.
As a result, I see two possibilities here: 1) WTIC is either near a TC high or just a half cycle high. If f crude moves down from here and breaks my blue TC line then it should find support at my lower Green fork if this is just a move into a half cycle low. A close below my lower green fork line will likely signal that the TC High is behind us and that we have started the move into a TC Low.
Even if we move into a TC Low here, I would expect a higher low than mid-Feb.
In addition to WTI charts, I’m also looking at the Gold oil Ratio for the when-to-get-in tell. In my view WTI will decouple from the SM trend after the next down-leg.
http://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historical-chart
Great article set on the decline of the Petrodollar and the risk it presents to the US economy.
http://ftmdaily.com/preparing-for-the-collapse-of-the-petrodollar-system/