Loading ...Everybody and his Dog
Are Bearish the Stock markets right now
The NYA is the Broadest measure of the US Stock Market
I am Bearish…and positioned short….BUT
Looking at the NYA thanks to the post below from Mark
I think we may have been HAD !
What IF we get to Mark’s 8250 like this !
Always something to keep you on your toes eh ?
That’s a 10% rally to 10,000
30% drawdown an a 3X Short etf .
!
Upper blue line will be a nice place to short the market. Thanks nice chart.
That is a nice chart, Fully, as per Bikoo99 – and that is why I am in this place, to learn to trade this stuff. However, if one is in it for the longer haul and NOT trading so much but looking to make some money via a buy and hold position over many months, would it not “work” to hold your position during the 30% drawdown and await the (hopefully) inevitable resumption of the downtrend and the eventual bottom (or close to it?) Just curious about your take on that philosophy for someone who is not a trader but wants leveraged results from this bear market.
Good Question
First of all of course this is a worst case scenario but it looks likely from this chart
So you need to be prepared for a 30% drawdown on a present position…but could double down if we get to that line
WITH a stop on a close above the line!
So you my be risking more than 30%
Second of all the 3X Etfs suffer from decay…if the underlying market does not move for a few days the 3Xer still
depreciates (like an option but for a different mathematical reason)
So you may lose more .
This is a personal decision …but we have found that holding on to 3X positions for more than a week is cery tough on the psyche when they move against you or don’t move at all
Personally I am partial to the Canadian 2X positions
HGD / HGU for Miners
HBD / HBU for Gold
HZD / HZU for Silver
HOD/ HOU for oil
HSD/ HSU for S and P
HQD / HQU for Naz 100
there are others too
much easier to hold in my experience…but they too decay a bit
on the other hand if you are lucky to nail a move and its fast you get Compounding …so even better gains than 3X or 2X
This is NOT like buying and holding LONG …with no leverage…like the miners…that’s much easier
I’m looking for a possible bounce next week. Seems like that always happens when the fed speaks ( wednes ). The vehicle I use is SPXL\SPXS, although instead of SPXS, I use UVXY since it moves more than SPXS.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=120&b=9&g=5&id=p90853967608&a=444312681