Goldtent TA Paradise

My first chart shows GDX and Gold Backtesting either a Trading Cycle low or, more likely, a half TC Low.

Wild intra-day swings. Blue is the IC uptrend, Green the TC uptrend and the Red, my Half-Cycle down trend.

My second chart is a longer term 2 Year weekly that shows the Cycle aberrations we have seen in GDX as we were transitioning from Bear to Bull. Study this one carefully as in Aug 2015 and Jan 2016 the GDX (Miner) cycle broke critical cycle trend lines “but did not fail.” Rather, these were stop runs…

Buckle up and Hold on. 😉

Added: Gold has an intra-day swing of $20 (Up $11 to down $9) and most of my Core Spock Rocks are still green.

Choppy action but nothing broken on my Cycle lines yet.

My charts show that the SPX (Stock Market) Trading Cycle has topped here. I am not expecting a big drop but do expect that we will move down for the next 1-3 weeks into a TC Low (38% to 50% retrace of the move out of the late June IC Low).

As I show that BioTechs appear to be leading the way, I picked up a starter position in BIS today at $30.50 when it pulled back toward my early trend line and may add if it picks up some steam.

I posted a few days back that I felt the WTIC Oil Intermediate Cycle was bottoming (see link, it actually bottomed at the 50% Fib retrace). I then went long UCO (in comments section of someone’s Oil Post) when UCO broke my down trend line.

If Price drops below my Green Trading Cycle uptrend in my second chart, I will likely just take profits on my positions. 😉

WTIC Oil Intermediate Cycle

First UCO chart is from August 4th but I never got around to posting. Second chart is an update from today

Added: 2 Callon Petroleum charts. CPE is my favorite domestic producer. I also bought 2 positions in CPE near the recent IC Low when I was buying UCO. I just took profits on CPE, however, as my 2nd long term chart shows it is running into overhead resistance (also above the daily and weekly BBands). I plan to buy back near my green TC Uptrend in my 1st chart but will also buy the breakout as well.

Sure looks like the SPX Trading Cycle topped yesterday on day 30 and has started its decline.

My second chart shows that BioTech’s are perhaps leading here. I show a breakdown, backtest and boom…

I show SGG backtesting its new Trading Cycle breakout. I added here at $45.93

If we move below $45, however, I will likely bail on this trade.

Sorry, but I just don’t like MegaPhone patterns at all. Especially after 7+ years…

I have the SPX on day 30 which is about where we see topping action and a move into the next TC Low.

Everything is looking just fine to me (I was adding again today on selective Miners that were selling off including RIC, OR, Anfield and Argonaut). 😉

My expectations are that we are very close to seeing the next explosive impulsive move higher that will establish the next Flag Pole in this Cycle.

Thanks to DadDoc for posting on SGG as Sugar appears to have just put in a “Stealth” 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL).

Here is an update from my last two USD Cycle posts:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=377283

https://goldtadise.com/?p=376768

I have the USD on day three of a new Trading Cycle (either TC2 or TC3 as I have two different possible counts). I also believe that USD’s longer Intermediate Cycle has topped here at 2+ months, based on the price action of closing below both the 50 and 20MAs after being rejected by the downtrend out of the USD’s secondary top.

My Cycle expectations are that this TC will top on or before day nine and make a Lower TC Low which will signal the start of the USD’s decline into its next IC Low 2-3 months out from here. My first chart shows you a one year view, while the second provides a 4 month close up of same.

Looks like NFP caused Stocks to bounce out of a half cycle low. We are now on Day 28 of Trading Cycle #1 of the new 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle that started in late June and we usually see the SPX top on or before day 35/36 as the timing band for a low runs 36-45 days.

My second chart shows a one year view on the Daily and my 3rd chart shows a 2+ year Weekly. The 3rd chart shows clearly that the SPX and other indicies have broken the Red downtrend line out of the May 2015 top. Also on the 3rd chart, note how the 30ema is on a bit of a roller coaster but has now turned up again and is supporting price at major lows.

All is well with the charts of Gold, Silver and the Miners in my Cycles Book and I was actually adding to positions today.

This is right about where we often see a half Cycle Low within a Trading Cycle.

I have Gold and Silver on day 10 and the Miners (GDX) on day 9.

Most of the charts I am looking at for stocks and commodities seem range bound going into tomorrow’s NFP.

I expect to see some big moves before the market opens…

Looks like the SPX and other stock indicies want to backtest their breakout. Today it looks like the SPX is backtesting its breakdown out of the Flag in my first chart.

If we get the backtest that I am expecting, then we need to watch the backtest line closely. Bulls want to see the line become support where price will bounce. Any substantial move below the line would be a false breakout (FBO) and would be Bearish, IMO.

Bonds (TLT) are close to having a failed Trading Cycle here. If so, this would then likely lead TLT into it’s next 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL). My first chart is near term while the second shows the 6+ year trend which has been bullish.

Junk Bonds (JNK and HYG) have also met resistance.

Is in my timing band to find a short term Trading Cycle Low. When it bounces, it will likely provide a headwind for the PM complex. My expectation is that any bounce will roll over on or before day 9 before heading lower.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=377283

Be careful if you are shorting Oil here. At 5+ months we are in my timing band for Oil to find an Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL). Note that it bounced at the 200ma and the XLE ETF bounced hard as well.

The USD is now in month 3 of its 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle that started in May. Last Friday it closed below the 200ma on a big move down. With my TC2 count at day 25, however, it is likely very close to a TC Low.

My expectations are that the USD will bounce out of its TC Low (or DCL) early next week but roll over before day 9 and then form a “Left Translated” or failed Trading Cycle that will break my Blue IC Uptrend line. My first chart is a Daily that shows both the Blue IC Uptrend line and the TC1 and TC2 Green Uptrends. The second chart is a 2 year chart showing my expectations into the Sept/Oct timeframe where I expect the next IC Low.

Plunger posted that one or more Guru’s are waiting for the next major Low in Oct. They may actually be correct, based on my longer 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle count but only after a Cycle high sometime between late August and mid to late Sept, depending on how bullish this IC is. 😉

My first 4 year chart shows the Bear to Bull Cycle transition based on the first 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle for the Miners (GDX as my proxy). The second chart is a close up view of the Cycle action since Jan 2016.

Added: If you look closely at my last chart (and even the first one), you can see the Elliot Wave structures within the 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle.

Fully’s recent tongue and cheek comment “what is a dividend?”

Seriously folks, Dividends in an IRA are tax free if you live in the USA. I added to my long term AZN position in my IRA’s after the June IC Low as it was paying a 7% Dividend at the time. Now it looks like a Growth stock.

Check out the breakout this week on bullish earnings. My second chart shows the potential breakout of a massive 2 year Bull Flag.

Sitting through Cycle High’s and Cycle Lows in an uptrend while I am collecting 7%. Are you kidding me??? 😉

Up over 10% today on an earnings beat. Great mining resource stock in one of my IRA’s for anyone interested in a “Steady Eddie.” The dividend was about 5.5% when I picked it up at $2.90 at it’s IC Low back in late June.

Unlike many resource companies that are loaded with debt, NSU’s balance sheet is quite strong which allows them to pay a nice dividend while the stock price moves through various cycles.

Even with the pop today the Div is still 4.7%.

Miners are starting to Rock & Roll now… 🙂

I don’t expect that this 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle will top until mid-Sept at the earliest and perhaps into Mid-Oct.

Time to Ride the Bull. 😉

Careful if you are short here. I am long UNG near the open for what may be a quick several day trade.

Will post some charts later.

I am using the GLD chart today to show the start of Trading Cycle #2.

In any case, Gold is on Day 4 while GLD shows day 2 (day 4 is the correct count).

TC2 is often the most bullish of the Trading Cycles within the longer Intermediate Cycle so make sure you establish your positions and enjoy the ride. 😉

Here is also an update on the USD:

Previous post from 7/25:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=376779

FYI, both SLV and CEF have broken their Cycle Downtrend lines this morning likely signaling the start of a new Trading Cycle.

GLD and GDX are currently testing their downtrend lines. Will post some charts when I get a chance.

Up 5.7% in the aftermarket to a new 52 week high on stellar earnings.

Here is the price channel I have since 2001 when I acquired my first shares.

My single biggest holding in terms of $ value. I love this company.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b71f02e6-0d8f-357a-b6b9-b9757d8e22c1/ss_edwards-lifesciences-beats-q2.html

First off, let me say that I am becoming very bullish on many soft commodities over the longer term. Many (Sugar, Soybeans, Coffee and Coco) seemed to have bottomed earlier this Spring. Many are now moving into their 5-6 month IC lows.

Someone has followed me on my Sugar (SGG) trade so I wanted to post my latest thinking. Based on Time, we should be moving into an IC Low so I have closed out my SGG trade with some very nice profits. That said, my second weekly chart shows why we may have just seen a very mild IC Low based on my long term Red downtrend line providing support. If so, SGG should start moving higher shortly. If so, I plan to reload.

My charts show the progress of Gold’s current 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle. I think is is too early in this IC for a Top, so I expect that my Blue IC Uptrend support line will hold. Gold options expiry is tomorrow and the FMOC on Wednesday and my expectations are that these two events will be the catalyst for the move out of this current short term Trading Cycle Low.

The Charts tell the story. Based on Time, I think my Red Resistance line holds for now and guides price into the next short term TC Low. After the USD bounces out of the next TC Low, I expect a more serious test of this resistance line.