Goldtent TA Paradise

The Bearish Gold Bull

I say looming because it does not appear imminent…

The Looming, Big Catalyst for Gold

While the down trend may well be tested on this move up, it is getting late in Gold’s current 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle for a big move, IMO.

https://surfcity.co/2017/04/12/golds-2011-down-trend-line/

Metals lose their 200-dma’s with a bearish reversal as bond yields make a bullish reversal. Will we get downside follow thru next week?

bearish-reversal-in-gold-and-silver

Warning Signs in Precious Metals

https://surfcity.co/2017/03/29/usd-gold-and-gdx/

Technicals for Gold Miners Remain Weak

Were you short or long into this move?

Here is my chart. I have been short with SPXU and BIS since March 16, the day Price was rejected off the top of my small Green and Orange parallel price channel on my chart. The confluence of the Orange and Red resistance lines provided strong resistance for Price and I would have exited quickly with a small loss had price broken to the upside.

It did not break to the upside and dumped once it broke to the downside of my small channel. Based on my cycle work, I think Price will likely break my Blue Trading Cycle uptrend near the 50% Fib Retrace before finding its next short term TC Low.

https://surfcity.co

Watch the Feb highs and 200-dma’s…..

Precious Metals and 200-Day Moving Averages

Look at banks & housing circa 2010-2011.

An Analog for the Gold Stocks Correction

More Downside Potential in the Gold Stocks

Underperformance in Gold Stocks Argues for Interim Peak

Gold’s Fundamentals Strengthen

Is really what Surf City Cycles is all about.

Do you remember this post on Gold in late December? Did you have the courage to pull the trigger?

https://surfcity.co/2016/12/29/gold-ycl-update/

Lets take a look at another example today with Cocoa (NIB) which is very likely bouncing out of a 6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL). The Blue arrows, at 6 month intervals show my Intermediate Cycle Lows on the chart.

This is not a trade I took for my service as NIB trades, on average, only 57K shares a day. Simply not enough liquidity but I pointed it out for members who might trade futures. In any case, the chart illustrates how I spot what are likely major cycle lows (i.e. 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Lows).

Take a look at my chart on NIB. Talk about trying to catch a falling knife…

Why would anyone buy this piece of sh%@t here. Time, Volume and Price action, that is why. 😉

Again, Cocoa is very much in a nasty Bear Market (i.e. clearly Stage 4 Bear in Weinstein’s book) so it is risky and the volume on NIB is not sufficient for any service. That said, bounces out of major Intermediate Lows, even in a bear market, can often move higher for a month or two.

In Gold miners, the Juniors to Majors ratio is an interesting one to follow using GDXJ:GDX

During the Long Bear, the Junior were beaten up more severely than the Majors. My chart shows this from 2011 until early 2016 when the Juniors broke out of the downtrend. If the Bull has resumed, one would expect this trend to continue. Note the picture perfect backtest at the late December Yearly Cycle Low followed by a strong bounce thus far… 😉

Gold & Gold Stocks Hit Upside Targets. Now What?

Compare today’s Gold Chart with the 2nd chart in the link below from my December 29, 2016 post on Gold where I stated that this was very likely the Yearly Cycle Low (YCL).

https://surfcity.co/2016/12/29/gold-ycl-update/

Most felt Gold was toast… Who would buy Gold and the Miners here??? Who, in their right mind, would show a Fork with an uptrend channel started on Dec 29 near the YCL???

A Cycle Guy that’s who… 😉

Second chart is on PVG, one of my favorite miners that I bought near the lows.

Here is a free post on my current thinking.

https://surfcity.co/2017/02/05/usd-and-gold-weekend-update/

Here you go.

https://surfcity.co/2017/02/05/crb-deep-dive/

https://surfcity.co/2017/02/02/pm-complex-positions/

Weaker US$ Could Send Gold & Gold Stocks to Higher Targets

US$ Index could test 97 now.

https://surfcity.co/2017/01/31/tuesday-cycle-updates/

https://surfcity.co/2017/01/31/gold-update/

Price and Time action I expect in the near term (next week or so).

https://surfcity.co/2017/01/29/cycles-for-gold-and-usd/

https://surfcity.co/2017/01/28/weekend-reading-on-what-and-why/

https://surfcity.co/2017/01/26/cup-of-coffee/

https://surfcity.co/2017/01/26/usd-trading-cycle-update-3/

https://surfcity.co/2017/01/26/natgas-is-boil-ing/

https://surfcity.co/2017/01/25/gold-cycle-update-6/

Was away on a mini Family vacation for the past several days so here is a quick update on several markets I am tracking.

SPX Stock Market Cycle:

https://surfcity.co/2017/01/24/spx-intermediate-cycle-update/

NatGas Cycle Update:

https://surfcity.co/2017/01/24/natgas-update/

Bonds (TLT) Update:

https://surfcity.co/2017/01/24/bond-tlt-cycle-update/

Coffee (JO) Update:

https://surfcity.co/2017/01/24/coffee-jo-cycle-update/