Buying at Major Cycle Lows
Is really what Surf City Cycles is all about.
Do you remember this post on Gold in late December? Did you have the courage to pull the trigger?
https://surfcity.co/2016/12/29/gold-ycl-update/
Lets take a look at another example today with Cocoa (NIB) which is very likely bouncing out of a 6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL). The Blue arrows, at 6 month intervals show my Intermediate Cycle Lows on the chart.
This is not a trade I took for my service as NIB trades, on average, only 57K shares a day. Simply not enough liquidity but I pointed it out for members who might trade futures. In any case, the chart illustrates how I spot what are likely major cycle lows (i.e. 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Lows).
Take a look at my chart on NIB. Talk about trying to catch a falling knife…
Why would anyone buy this piece of sh%@t here. Time, Volume and Price action, that is why. 😉
Again, Cocoa is very much in a nasty Bear Market (i.e. clearly Stage 4 Bear in Weinstein’s book) so it is risky and the volume on NIB is not sufficient for any service. That said, bounces out of major Intermediate Lows, even in a bear market, can often move higher for a month or two.
Guts + a gallon of saliva + faith + conviction are needed to get into gentlemen (or fools as lower can get lowest as it can stay out of the money longer) entry but, check sentiments. I did only to feel relieved later.
that’s a gutsy long entry. Personally I would wait for a double bottom, with divergences, at least.