Goldtent TA Paradise

Now this one has to be pretty important, right ? Surely if it had broken out we’d have heard about it. Apparently not…

This one is breaking out as we speak

You guessed it – on the brink of a breakout.

Canadian Dollar gold chart. All the classic chart patterns are there – bull run including breakout of wedge – massive consolidation and base building – false breakdown. Now we’re on the verge of an enormously significant break into clear air and new all time highs. Does any of this sound familiar ? Look at the gold chart in US Dollars. All the charts are saying and doing the same thing. One by one they’re breaking into a huge new bull market. Gold in USD may be the last to pop, but after looking at all of these, I for one am more confident that $1400 is going to be tested and overcome soon.

After a false breakdown, we have the classic ‘around the apex’ breakout. Hugely significant, but the silence is deafening !

All time highs. Again, nobody seems aware of what is happening here, and just how important it is…

Gold is pennies away from an enormously important breakout, and nobody seems to care. This is a perfect contrarian indicator as far as I’m concerned. Looks at that MACD cross as well…

Well, if history is any guide it could be for Energy Fuels

This isn’t a confident prediction, just an observation of past behaviour. I’m holding this stock, with a 100% gain so far. My target price in the next 12 months is $10.  As always, do your own due diligence. Uranium stocks are incredibly volatile.

Which way ? I like Avocados chart. It keeps me alert to the possibility of a huge dollar rally. What stops me from thinking this is the most likely outcome is time.  We’re running out of it. Everything else seems to be pointing to a breakdown. The megaphone pattern is very significant. It tells us the market is very unsure. It’s most common at major, cyclical tops or bottoms. A top or a bottom can be ‘V’ shaped or it can be a long, drawn out topping/bottoming process. To help decide whether we’re forming a top, or a base to launch from, I’d say that the time factor is key. Where are we in terms of the larger cycles ? Are we approaching a major cyclical top, or should we be turning down ? Gold looks to have formed a massive, and I mean MASSIVE 5 year base. A move above the $1400 area will be decisive. At that point, I believe PM stocks will go nuts, probably more than doubling within 6 to 12 months. Individual stocks could easily go up by 400 to 600%. We’re not there yet though. A rapid move to above 110 on the dollar ISN’T impossible. In my view, taking the signal from gold and cycle timings into account, it’s a low probability (maybe 10 to 15%). As Fully has said, gold can rise along with the dollar, and certainly needs to start showing relative strength. However, a 20% rise in the dollar would likely kill any hopes of a gold breakout for some time. Also worth remembering, is the fact that gold is already breaking out from multi-year downtrends in other currencies. I’ve tried to summarise a lot of this on the chart below.

I have to admit, this is taking much longer to resolve than I anticipated. As I type, the dollar is having yet another attempt at the 97 level. It must be pretty bruised – how many rejections can it take ?

We’ve built out a large megaphone pattern, with higher highs and lower lows. My thoughts are in the chart below…

Something has to give. The volatility suggested by a megaphone pattern is strongly suggestive of a market trying to find direction. When it does and there is a breakout, I believe it will have enormous implications for global markets. I think the next big move (whether it’s up or down) will be the final one in this pattern. That means we either go above the 109/110 area in a huge bull move, or we drop below 87/88 and we have a full on bear market.

I think the FED could prove to be the key here. Interest rates, as I’ve said before, are closer to the end of the hiking cycle than the beginning (in my view). That (again, in my view) is dollar bearish. Think about it. 22 trillion in debt. How much higher can rates go without causing a debt fuelled collapse ? There is very little room for manoeuvre. They appear to be boxed in, with only one way to go. That may please investors at first, but the full horror of the implications will soon make themselves felt as it becomes very, very clear that the Emperor has no clothes (no policy options) except more low or even negative rates. This monetary farce has always been doomed to failure I’m afraid. It’s simply a question of when.

One step at a time…

A bullish MACD cross combined with STOCH rising from below 50 to above 50 has delivered gains of between approximately 180 and 300 points on the HUI this century. The HUI chart is on the brink of delivering that bullish signal again…

The HUI is just about to finish it’s third cup since the turn of the century…

I got into this one at a share price of around $1.80, so around 100% profits at the moment. I’m holding though. A break above the $5 area, with TRIX crossing above zero, at the same time as we move out of a cyclical low will be enough to suggest some very big gains ahead. 5000 % anyone ? Do your own due diligence as always…

History repeating…

Gold chart indicators are looking good

The topping process was very different during the most recent cycle peak. RSI typically takes 3 years to bottom out (the dollar continues to fall for some years after that). For this cycle, that initial 3 year drop comes to an end in December. If I’ve got any of this right (and it’s largely based on pattern recognition), it means that (compared to the last 2 dollar cycles), the drop from the peak so far has been pretty small. Does that mean there is some ‘catching up’ to do ? Does it mean we’re on the edge of a very rapid 10 to 20% drop ? I’m thinking maybe it does…

Here’s what…

I’ve been speculating about this chart pattern for some time now (massive wedge breakout, apex backtest, rounded bottom, ‘hot zone, $1410 region breakout). The symmetry and chartology is perfect. Each element is working to confirm the direction (up). That hugely important bull market support line was tested and held successfully. The wedge breakout was tested at the same time and resulted in the most perfect apex hit you’ll ever see. On top of all of that we have a perfect 6 year rounded base (perfectly positioned at the major cyclical low point), allowing a steady build of market energy and forces which, I believe, will launch gold prices through the hot zone and clear above $1410 in the next 6 months (probably much sooner). At that point gold stocks will be on fire.

That’s how I believe things will unfold, but for the sake of completeness – a break below the $1220 area means it’s time to give up. Come on gold, you can do it…

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Continuing the ‘picture paints a thousand words’ theme…

A picture can paint a thousand words, so here’s a picture…

It’s visible on the non-log chart…

and the log chart…

Either this is a huge coincidence, or it’s confirming a very large move to the upside is coming.

And here…

Looking ahead a few years, and considering the logarithmic price action, what does the chart tell us ? Here’s my view…

For several years now, gold has surged out of the December low to gain between $100 and $300. That would give us $1400 to $1600 gold. Coming out of a huge basing pattern, with favourable COT numbers and technical indicators, I think we could easily be towards the top end of that range within 3 to 6 months. I could be wrong, and only time will tell.

Soaring jobs data has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons today. Let’s see what happens once the dust settles. In the meantime, here’s another way of visualising the battle ahead…

If this basing pattern plays out and we get above that $1400 region, I’d expect a very rapid surge in the miners.

Just doodling, and came up with this. Possible, I guess…

As I’ve said many times, we need to break above the $1400 horizontal resistance zone to complete the move into a clear bull market that can’t really be denied. Until then, there is still room for debate. So far, so good though, and the various indicators are looking very supportive of a sustained bullish move.

Just look at that rounded base pattern – if it’s the real deal, and we break overhead resistance in the coming weeks/months this is going to be a very exciting time. I’d expect a breather soon, but the mood music is changing. The Fed is boxed in, with rate hikes looking less and less unlikely. Gold will love it, I’m sure.