Goldtent TA Paradise

Whilst Gold/Silver/GDX/GDXJ/HUI are all building out bullish wedge type patterns that hit the edge of the ‘bowl’ basing pattern in the next few weeks- here’s another piece of the jigsaw.

What would’ve happened over the last 5 years if you’d bought gold in December ? Take into consideration that tis is a period when gold has been somewhat ‘subdued’. Certainly not the heady days of the 2000-2011 bull run. Well, here’s what would’ve happened…

Put this together with the historically high Gold/Silver ratio and bullish looking correction patterns taking place right now, and 2020 is looking very good.

The next breakout is getting close. The curved base support should provide the end point for this bullish descending wedge

Still grinding its way out of that huge basing formation. It tells a story which many aren’t really expecting. Commodity inflation. If you check out the SPX to commodities ratio though…historic lows, so on the basis of buy low and sell high, this is the time to buy.

Looks promising after a recent breakout, but when you zoom in, it’s possible we could morph into a pattern which take a a few more weeks or months to deliver THE breakout. Patience will be rewarded though (in my opinion)

A reasonable expectation would be a near 100% move up in the next 18 months or so. Large moves occur with TRIX above zero in the green boxes.

Always interesting to get a broader view. The geometry of this chart looks very constructive and bullish to me. Could take a few more weeks. Just needs a little patience.

There’s nothing to say we need to pullback all the way to $16. Any news about the Chinese trade deal (or lack of it), increased rate cut odds, or who knows what else could cause an upside breakout at any point…

I know some are of the view that $1446 was as far as we’re going. Possibly, but we need to break above the descending wedge to be sure (that’s somewhere around $1510 at the moment). Until then, $1400-$1440 remains my preferred target area.

$1440 short term, but I’m looking at $1400 in a few weeks, then a big leg up Golds long term bull market is looking very healthy.

The Uranium sector can be fun/scary in equal measure. Many of the charts are looking very interesting. One of my favourites (which I’ve been holding since very close to the sector lows), is poised for ‘moment of truth’…

Edit – Cameco chart added – also looking very tempting at this point.

$2 short term downside, $8+ upside (initially), more in the long term.

I’ve highlighted the possibility of a deeper pullback before, but it was looking less likely. Well, maybe the odds are increasing. It would certainly completed a very good looking chart, and set us up brilliantly for the move through $1600 and on to $1800

Feeling fruity

Shhh, don’t tell anyone

A monthly close below the bearish rising wedge confirms the negative outlook. A textbook apex backtest would take us back up to the 99 area, which is worth bearing in mind for the next few months. Unless that is broken to the upside, my ‘domed top’ formation continues to play out.

Up over 10% today.

Those are pretty large bullish wedge breakouts. It seems increasingly clear that the next big leg up has begun. Gold was in no mood to test the low to mid $1400’s.

After a short, scary drop, after yesterdays FOMC, things seem to be settling down as the implications dawn on human traders. Suspect the initial PM drop/Dollar surge was algo-driven. In any case, Gold and Silver look like they are in the early stages of the next move up. I want to see gold close this week a few Dollars above the wedge (perhaps $1510 or more), just to get proper confirmation.

After the Fed announce another 0.25% rate cut. Somewhat counter-intuitive, but it’s all about the forward look and expectations for the future. Stock markets and Dollar rise as the Fed provides support yet again. Room for manoeuvre during a possible economic downturn is now very limited. Let’s see how this plays out, and where we close at the end of the week. A sharp reversal wouldn’t surprise me at all, but $1450 is looking likely…

Edit: Reversed already.  Let’s see how things move in the next day or two before drawing any conclusions.

The copper wedge will resolve itself within the next 6 months (probably much sooner than that)

You might remember I got very excited posting these (and many other global currency) gold charts early in the year. When I saw such enormous, bullish basing/consolidation patterns. pennants, flags and triangles all over the place, it became obvious to me that everything was coming to a conclusion, and that the direction of travel would be up. The breakouts (upwards) began one by one, with very little fanfare and surprisingly few seeming to notice. It was all about gold priced in US Dollars (which was still forming a bullish downward sloping wedge up against the edge of my ‘bowl’ basing pattern). Dollar gold has been a long way behind all these other currencies which have broken to new all time highs.

The next move for Dollar Gold will be to challenge that $1700-$1900 range. Once we get past $1600, I’m going to start looking very carefully at just how long I think it might take to break through. I think it’s possible we can get well past $1600 in the next few weeks BUT, if gold were to trend down for the rest of the year, it would set us up for an incredible run next year, so either way, I have no concerns whatsoever. The fundamental reasons for FIAT depreciation are ‘baked into the cake’. I believe commodity inflation will unfold steadily in the next 12 months, catching many people by surprise apparently. I have no clue why it would be a surprise if you look at the CRB or BCOM charts though. Anyway, enough of my rambling thoughts, here are the charts…

As a footnote, when I say ‘initial target’ what I mean is that this is what I’m thinking is the likely ballpark figure before we turn down into the cyclical low in late 2023 or 2024 (remembering that we may start the drop into that low a year or so before we actually reach the bottom). So we might expect that target to be reached by 2022. If we rise faster, I will re-assess. After the 2024 low, we will surpass that high, on the way to a peak in the late 2020’s. That’s my personal opinion anyway.

EDIT – Charts for gold in Indian Rupee and Chinese Yuan added below. It seemed rude not to, as they are such populous, gold loving nations…

My initial target would be around £1800 in the next 3 years or so.

The Stochastic indicator is one that I’ve found very useful in the past. I think it may be telling us something useful again…

False breakout or real ? Time will tell.

Silver is looking good here – maybe the next leg up is closer than we think. Still cautious though…

Anyone want to add their cycle analysis to this pretty clear chart formation ? I find the shorter timescale cycles very frustrating to say the least. What is very clear though, is that this is a pretty important decision point. It’ll determine whether we have to endure several more weeks, or potentially even months of an extended correction, or whether we have a very exciting lead up to Christmas. I’m somewhat torn, but sorry to say, marginally favour a much longer pullback.

Edit: Just seen Rambus post below.  Adds to my concerns…

I managed to find some sentiment indicators on Tradingview. This is how I’m reading things…