Goldtent TA Paradise

Watching for a crucial breakout

The gold chart was never in danger of a breakdown. The silver ‘arc’ is still basing. The gold/silver ratio suggests that bottoming process is likely to be complete with significant upsidfe ahead.

Both quotes at exactly the same time. They were $80 different at one point…

Something is broken

Some platforms saying the gold price is around $1600, others closer to $1700. That is a massive discrepancy. GDX and GDXJ have been seeing big differences in the quoted prices too. Hargreaves Lansdown were offering about $21 to sell GDX yesterday, when it was around $26.

This is bad.

Gold – Nothing is available, even at £200 above spot. Physical gold is looking to be unavailable at any price. Miners are sitting on the only supply – Can you imagine what might happen to their share prices ?

GDX looks ready to break out of the recent consolidation pattern

Almost unbelievably, silver made a lower low than back in late 2015 at the bottom of the PM bear market. The monthly close is crucial though. The gold/silver ratio is suggesting to me that silver may begin to assume its role as ‘poor mans gold’, overtaking the demand for it’s uses as an industrial metal. We’ll know by the end of Tuesday next week.

It may have felt scary at the time, but gold held up well compared to the stock market, and the golden arc is still doing it’s job of containing price, and leading us back towards the old highs. The recent Fed announcement should clear the path to $1800 and beyond. Let’s see what happens next.

These coins were £1321 a week ago, now £1521 – an increase of £200 ($230) in a week !!!

After my post a few hours ago – gold in the UK has since moved up to new all-time highs

The GSR has blasted to 100 year highs. Looks at what happened to Barrick Gold share price after previous extremes…

This is what is coming to all FIAT currencies in my view. Trillions upon trillions will see commodity inflation replace equity inflation.

Gold in Aussie Dollars & British Pound pushing into new all-time highs today…

Before this disaster unfolded, with the biggest market crash any of us are ever likely to see (still in progress), I posted this chart…

Edit: My post on 23 Feb https://goldtadise.com/?p=457220

If only we knew then what we know now…

https://twitter.com/elliotclissold/status/1240919115482771456?s=19

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/beijings-claim-no-new-infections-contradicts-reality-ground

Sometimes when I write an article here, I struggle for a title, but not this time.

I look around the world and all the people who are scared and vulnerable and feel so sad. I even look at my own children and their friends (who have had to abandon their University studies and all of the exciting plans they had for the coming year).  Am I the only one finding it hard to sleep at the moment ? I’m a very solid sleeper, and never suffered from any form of insomnia, but all that has changed. I wake up in the middle of the night, completely unable to get back to sleep.

Back in 2008, the GFC and near-collapse of the world banking system (and conversations with a friend and colleague) woke me up to what was going on, and I’ve been on a quest to make sense of it ever since (telling anyone who would listen to my ‘crazy’ ideas). I’m a weather forecaster. I deal in science, mathematics, logic, probabilities and hazard/disaster scenario planning (with the Civil Contingency Community).  Putting all of this together, tracking the charts and educating myself has only led to an ever increasing conviction, that what I wrote in an article back in 2009 is correct. I printed out the article and stuck it in a drawer. I’ve just had another look at it. I wrote about Strauss and Howes ‘Fourth Turning’ and then went on to say ‘Whilst we’re being told about the green shoots of recovery and economies emerging from recession, what we are really seeing is a very feeble pause in the downward spiral towards a major global economic crisis, only possible because of the trillions of £/$?Euros pumped in to shore up the crippled financial institutions’

That was over 10 years ago, and I had no idea the Fed et al could keep it pumped for that long. I’ve often seen people ask what sort of world we’d be living in if gold went up 8-fold like it did between 2000 and 2011. I’m afraid we’re likely to find out. I will continue to chart and post here, but if PM’s (and eventually commodities) rise causes pain and misery it will be with a very heavy heart. I don’t think any of us really wanted it this way.

Europe is literally crumbling in front of my eyes. I’ve visited so many of these wonderful countries and spent happy times with their people. I was at Lake Garda in Italy just last year. Spain, Portugal, France, Greece, Turkey, the Canary Islands, Cyprus, Malta, Poland, Croatia – I have such fond memories of them all, and to see them quite literally shut down, with no functioning economy for months breaks my heart.

To those in the US who may still be thinking it won’t happen to you, I’ve been warning you – it will. All of our economies and stock markets and banks are at systemic risk now. I haven’t heard one single, rational explanation how the multi, multi trillion Dollar bill for all of this can be paid. I’m fairly confident that some very effective therapies to help combat this will eventually be found, but so far, nothing is preventing one of the worlds best healthcare systems in Italy from being way, way past its maximum capacity. If you’re not too concerned, you really, really should be.

Back in 2008 all the wrong decisions were made, and since then nothing has been fixed. More excess and wealth-harvesting by the elites, whilst the 95% are burdened with debt to maintain normal life (a perfect example is the £50,000 debt most students have after completing University). Inter bank lending has been just a few percent, whilst we have to pay many times that to finance a car, or any other large item – even mortgages don’t see the rate cuts being passed on.

And one last point. This idea that the biggest bubble has just met the pin to burst it. I agree that’s true, but it’s more complex than that. The big bubble is made up of lots of smaller bubbles. One pin often lets the air out of a limited number of the bubbles within the big bubble. This time it’s different. The virus is multiple pins (one in every country) and that one pin in each country is simultaneously bursting EVERY bubble. Think about the implications of that for a moment.

So, yes, I have a very heavy heart. The people WE elected have let us all down. Maybe the virus couldn’t have been prevented but the size of the bubble could, and perhaps, just perhaps, we should spend more time looking after each other, this precious Earth and preparing for threats to all of humanity, rather than spending incredible amounts of money on fighting wars and blowing bubbles.

After the recent sharp drops it’ll be a case of trying to pick bottoms in the next week or two. I’m planning to take positions in 15-20 quality miners, including 4 Uranium plays (these prices are ridiculously good value in my view). No doubt I’ll time it all wrong and get a 30% drop the next day, but I’m not too worried looking at the likely gains in the coming few years. Here are a couple of charts, the first one is First Majestic Silver, and the second one is Energy Fuels.

I agree that it’s important to try and be positive here, but as we’ve already discussed, the big issue is what happens if we get too many cases needing hospital care all at once. That has happened in Italy.

Think about this for a moment. China has a population of 1.4 BILLION. Italy has a population of 66 MILLION. Therefore Italy has about 5% of Chinas population. The number of fatalities in Italy has already surpassed the official figures we were given for China. The logarithmic graph showing case numbers appeared to be flattening – it’s turning up again.

This has the potential to wipe out millions unless social isolation is rigidly enforced. Even in Italy where they are being enforced, the healthcare system is on its knees. Please don’t underestimate this. Was China lying ? Who knows, but this has the ability to overwhelm your countries healthcare capabilities, without question. The peak is predicted in around 8-12 weeks here in the UK…

This chart pattern is wrong. The Dollar bulls were absolutely right. We have a global liquidity crisis. Yet another shout out to Plunger. The Dollar cycle low is still ahead though, so it’ll be interesting (and frightening) to see how this plays out. DXY 120 ? 140 ? 160 ? I’m going to have to read much more on PBC dynamics (which I’m doing now), but a hyperinflationary event must be possible, with the Dollar joining every other FIAT on their journey down the drain and into the history books.

here in the UK. Up about £50 ($60) from the lows earlier on today…

The loss to the economy will be devastating. 3 months is a conservative estimate, with some suggestions that we may need to keep much of society on lockdown until a vaccine is available. We would need hundreds of millions of doses to be produced and administered. I very much doubt that is happening in much less than 12 months.

Large sections of the economy will be simply wiped out. I’ll repeat, there are 2 options…print to infinity, or hit a big shiny ‘reset’ button. Both are very bad.

Global stock markets will not be recovering anytime soon. Zero economy, and zero confidence about what sort of a future we will have.

Things that society NEEDS will rocket in price. Things that society used to WANT (but not need) will collapse.