Appears DUST trade is over with a double top $40.00–
Negative divergence finally played out
RSI below 50
13 MA crossed below 34 MA
Expecting DUST to back test 13 and 34 MA on it’s way down…currently $35.85 and $36.16…
If DUST has a 13/34 BULL cross and/or breaches $40 would I reconsider the DUST trade.
As Matrix stated, “wait till Monday for possible NUGT trade”…
Indicators all point down
DUST channel looks good here too……..
http://schrts.co/j4thUf
Thanks Mark. Appreciate your contributions to goldtadise.com. You are a VALUED contributor.
I’m going over week’s action on the DUST 60 to learn some lessons and I think I’ve learned something.
I know I’ve said this before, but that 13/34 ema is a small but sharp tool. I looked over the price action from the bear cross on Friday back to it’s corresponding bull cross and that takes you all the way back at 11:30 on June 22nd! In other words, just using the 13/34 and nothing else a trader would have bought DUST at about 16.50 on June 22nd and sold it Friday at 34.50 for 109% in 7 weeks doing nothing more than watching for a cross over. But then I tried it out with DWTI and it’s like 130%. Two legs, cross up to cross down, in about 6 weeks and the best thing is that it cuts out a whole lot of chop which is what I find to be the biggest pain and greatest source of mental torture in trading 3x ETFs: the ping-pong ball price movements. All you need is a trend really but actually, the 13/34 hugs the price action so well you can do pretty well just following it like you would any indicator. Actually, it seems to deal with chop better than an indicator does. Also, one doesn’t need to interpret what the 13/34 is saying because it’s really just the price bars themselves smoothed out 13 or 34 times.
It’s probably better to combine indicators and other things with something like a 13/34 ema but a simpler method like this might really have an advantage when trading something like DUST or any other vehicle that has a lot of volatility and can jump like 3-20% in an hour (Friday, 2-3:15, 8.5%). Especially using something like a 1 minute chart. Friday was like a week’s worth of trading in terms of percentages and movement. It makes sense to treat an hour like it was a day when you look at it from a matter of percentage price movement. A day is 5%, so if price moves 5% in an hour, move to a smaller scale not a bigger one. The chop seems to get smaller and the lines get straighter. But since you’ve got to act a little faster on a one-minute time scale, a simple ema cross method helps with that.
Anyhow I think the 13/34 ema thing could make a pretty good mechanical method and it’s the way it deals with chop, surprisingly, that suggests this. I would have thought an ema would have been less sophisticated than an indicator but actually it seems to be the opposite.
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.
Albert Einstein