Goldtent TA Paradise

With everything going on in the world, the US Dollar has barely twitched…

It’s getting late here, and I messed up with my resistance line. GDX has indeed closed above monthly resistance (even with my ’tilted’ resistance line. Fantastic news. Sets the scene for a large advance…

I expect a strong performance in coming weeks though…

Edit – I made a mistake there – see post above 🙂

I posted this 3 weeks ago,

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Target has now been hit after another 15% move today…

and there seems to be a lot more in the tank…

And gold delivered its verdict today as well…

Bitcoin MACD bullish crossover happened a few minutes ago. Further price advances ahead…

Gold decision point here…

I’m hoping some of you took the plunge when I started posting about the upcoming Bitcoin halving. I didn’t time it quite right (could’ve been up 100% by now), but around 50% in a few weeks isn’t too bad. The trick now will be getting out of the trade if it crashes and burns. I have no idea what happens when this thing meets the apex…

Just the chart

The close on Thursday will tell me everything I need to know…

Facts…

1) So far, every halving event has led to huge gains.

2) The next halving is in 15 days time

3) On the short-term chart, bitcoin has broken out, back-tested the breakout and moved up

4) On the longer time-frame the chart reaches an apex at the exact time of the halving. How incredible is that ?

5) Technical indicators are turning bullish

Maybe we hit the apex and then plunge. Maybe it does what it’s always done in the past and experiences huge gains. What do you think ?

I do have to acknowledge these (very) bearish looking patterns on the gold chart. If GDX closes above $33 on Thursday, the miners will lead gold back to the old highs (in my view). Some caution is prudent in the $1800 region, but, on balance, I expect the power of this bull trend to win the day and ‘carve out’ the pattern I’ve been long favouring (cup completion and possible handle formation). I’ll be watching this very closely in the coming week. We’re likely to have all the answers we need by Thursday/Friday.

GDX has closed above multi-year resistance. Volume is doing exactly what it did during the last bull-launch, so no need to be concerned. History, as ever, is the best guide.

I live in the north of England. We’ve lost 2 family members to Covid-19 and another was seriously ill. We have seen neighbours die and know through friends/contacts of many other cases/deaths.

Covid-19 deaths are MUCH higher than officially reported here in the UK. The official stats are ONLY the people who died in hospital and tested positive for the virus. Care home deaths are time-lagged and reported seperately. The numbers reported by each country are deaths confirmed in hospital. We have over 140,000 care homes in the UK. 16 died in 2 weeks at one of our local homes, compared to an average of 1. The first few died within a few days and weren’t allowed into hospital for tests (because they knew they wouldn’t be able to save them). They had to die painfully, with no medical care other than paracetamol and no family members. It became obvious this was Covid-19, so the rest were given tests and it was confirmed they all died from Covid-19. That is one care home out of more than 140,000 !

In the week before our first reported UK Covid death, seasonal flu had subsided, with only a handful of serious cases and fatalities. We have an average of around 17,000 flu deaths in the UK each season (mainly between Nov and Feb). Looking at the available graphs, around 10% of flu deaths occur outside of those months, so perhaps 2000, between March and October. So perhaps a few hundred on average in March and April. Covid-19 (hospital confirmed deaths) are around 20,000 in the last 6 weeks or so. With care home deaths and deaths at home, that number is likely to be closer to 30,000 and we are due to see thousands more deaths before this tails off in a few weeks (hopefully). All told, we could be close to 40,000 deaths in around 3 months. All at a time, when there would normally be just a few hundred flu-relate deaths !!!

This is starting to show in the stats, with the graph for all UK deaths clearly showing the dramatic effect of Covid-19 on our excess mortality rate…

Please don’t tell me this is comparable to Flu. It isn’t. It’s quite amazing that we had our flu season, which passed through the community and caused the deaths of thousands of vulnerable people, and yet, even after that had happened, Covid-19 was still capable of taking another 40,000 lives in a few weeks (including over 100 frontline medical staff and thousands of people below the age of 40, many without any known health problems). We prevented it spreading and got the ‘r’ number below 1, and estimates suggest at least 80% of the population haven’t had it yet. Without lockdown, projections suggest 80% of us would have had it, resulting in 4 times as many deaths. That’s 160,000 deaths. But wait, that’s not right. The deaths would’ve been MUCH higher, because hospital and ventilator capacity would’ve been exceeded (because of lockdown, we flattened the curve and kept demand below capacity). Without the strict lockdown, UK deaths are estimated to have been closer to half a million.

Before you say, the predictions here ion the UK can’t be trusted, the ‘curve’ prediction at the start of lockdown is almost precisely what the real curve ended up looking like. The prediction was eerily accurate.

So, to summarise…

Flu kills an average of 17,000 people in the UK over 4 months, and maybe 2000 in an average March/April

Covid-19 has just killed over 20,000 people in 6 weeks and likely over 30,000 in March/April altogether

Therefore 10 times the normal death rate from ‘flu-like’ illness

All of that whilst taking extreme measures to prevent spread.

GDX closed above multi year resistance, and gold looks ready to make a break for it…

I alerted everyone last year when these broke out (in no uncertain terms). The bull market has gone from strength to strength since, right across the planet. We’re only just getting started. Expect a pullback from the old highs and a large correction down into the 8 year cycle low in late 2023/early 2024. Apart from that, this is going to power on to it’s peak in the late 2020’s. There may be unforeseen changes to the entire monetary system as a result of printing multiple trillions by every central bank. Those changes are likely to propel the yellow metal to numbers that seem fanciful right now.

GDX closed above the key $33 level I posted about yesterday (but only just). Gold didn’t quite reach my $1650 objective for the daily cycle low, but we need a close above the $1750 neckline area to confirm the run towards the old highs is on.

Chart first, then I’ll explain how I’m interpreting it…

1 – The ‘arc’ is complete. All that remains is the final surge to touch the old highs.

2 – The 8 year cycle is clear and the next low is due anytime from around late 2023 (when does the descent into that low begin ?)

3 – The volume indicator (doesn’t matter how it works) – blue and red lines oscillate, but don’t really cross in a bull market.

4 – The volume indicator is approaching the extreme prior to a major pullback, but the red line hasn’t quite hit the ‘extreme zone’ yet.

5 – MACD is in long term bull mode

6 – Stoch hasn’t quite hit the red line associated with bull market interim peaks, but it will soon

Putting all of this together, along with current sentiment and fundamentals, leads me to believe we have the conditions suitable for a final push to the old highs. I think we’ll arrive there with very stretched indicators suggesting a sizeable consolidation/pullback is likely. I expect the bears to come out (yet again), with calls for $1000 (yet again). They will be wrong (yet again). It will be a great time to take profits and sell many positions if you want to, knowing that you can get back in at lower levels.

I know some are expecting the move to just go straight past $2000 and head towards $2500/$3000 without any major pullbacks. At this point, I don’t think that is the most likely outcome. I wouldn’t say it’s impossible though, just unlikely.

I’ve noticed that sometimes, these arcs work better if they are tilted. In the case of the GDX, if you align the top of the arc precisely, it does indeed have a ’tilt’ Let’s see what happens next, but a weekly close above $33 will take us clear, and be a strong signal that it’s game on for a large jump to the upside…

(I love that quirky track from Christine and the Queens)

Uranium names have continued making daily gain of 5%, 10%, 20% or more

Energy Fuels up 11% today, UR Energy up 13%, Uranium Energy up 6%…

In terms of the ‘big picture’, something like this maybe…

If oil can trade at -$40 a barrel, and the Fed can print multiple trillions, gold can sure as hell go to $10,000+

This daily cycle low has been a very mild affair so far. We came close to hitting the $1650 target, but we’re currently trading back above the 10-day moving average (just). A sharp ‘plunge’ is still possible, but I sense upside pressure building…

Just how far remains to be seen. $1650 may be enough, but very strong support at $1500. I don’t think we’re going that far though. The next advance will, in all likelihood, take us past $1800 and perhaps past $1900. Miners are likely to catch fire.

The GSR chart looks ready to launch. If it does, silver could be heading back to $12 or less, with gold holding firm around $1650. Just one possible scenario in this crazy world.

The chart I posted a few days ago is continuing to play out very nicely. The question now is…do we stop at $1650, or are we headed lower ?

Words fail me

Edit – Now Negative

Yes it can…

Update $8.82…

Update $7.98…

Update $5…

I cant remember Brent crude ever being more than double the price of WTI