Friday was Day 25 of the current SPX Trading Cycle (36-43 days Low to Low on average). This SPX rally has been bullish and very steep (see my Green Trading Cycle uptrend line inside my Blue Fork). The rally out of last Sept was similar after retesting the Aug Low and topped on day 24 before moving into its TC Low. Are we looking at a potential Fractal?

Watch this Green trend line closely next week or so because if Price moves below it, this will likely signal that the current Trading Cycle has topped.

SPX TC

Weekly chart of same. Note the similarity of the weekly patterns (so far) from the Aug & Sept lows to the current period. Both retested the Lows followed by a strong rally of 5-6 weeks. Will history repeat with stocks topping next week? Time will Tell. 🙂

SPX Weekly

Added: SPX circa 2000-2002 as a potential “Echo Year.” The Blue arrows show how the SPX stair steps up into a market top with each 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle making a higher high and a Higher Low (very important). The first Red arrow shows where the Bear starts AFTER the SPX breaks this pattern by making a Lower IC Low. Note that once it breaks my green line and the lower IC Low and then signals the start of the Bear starts the stair step down of lower IC Lows into the bottom.

Note also the one IC Higher Low (circled) leads to a false breakout above my channel and the 30ema. The Bear bottoms at the second breakout and the 30 ema turns up with price above.

SPX 2000

Added: If 2000-2002 is an Echo Year, these next two chart show a speculative downtrend channel in the months and year ahead. Unless the SPX rolls over soon, however, this “speculative channel” will be just that. If it does and the Bear lasts into 2017, the last chart provide is a potential longer term view of an expanded channel with some Fibs and a major support line.

SPX 2016 Echo

SPX 2017 DT