Loading ...Gold Crunch Time !
Is the Consolidation Pattern FINALLY Done ?
Will this turn out to be what Rambus has been Expecting
Will we look back and say…well that was obvious ?
OR
Will there be an 8 on this chart at 1200 ?
Code Red for Gold right here
We are below the 50 % retrace of the whole bull move
If we break down out of this pattern the PO is 700 !
In a hurry
How many times have we thought we were in a real impulse move !
Well..the last Real Impulse Move was from 1800 to 1300 back in 2012-2013
30 months ! Enough ?
We analyze the crap out of this market ..but when push comes to shove this Monthly chart is all that matters
KISS (Oh I made you blush!)
I vote for breakdown – way too many “flipping” bullish here, IMHO
Fear of missing the bottom – who cares – can’t happen – yea someday there will be a low print (and maybe we had it), but it will be tested at least once and maybe many times to hammer out a bottom. FWIW
My take is we DO make a short term bottom (late next week?) that will APPEAR to validate the bulls.
Then, after enough of a (false) rally to get folks loaded up long, we have the momentum needed to break 1000 when they all flip.
Yep – that would be the backtest
Me I still like my bearish curves. I can never get straight line wedge to fit well on any period chart for gold. With the curves, $1000 is at the lower line, so $1000 is a shoe in I would say. Then, like the 1929-32 stocks bear market further drops can be within the curved lines. It does not havew to fall out of the channel even to go to $800 because the channel is steepening. In other words, the final 1932 stock market low was still within the consolidation channel – check out Plunger’s chart of the Ursa Major big 1929-32 bear in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has had a dead link on his post for a little while, so I copied it here:
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/bearish-curves-on-gold-chart-from-last.html
So it would not surprse me to see a move to $1000 and then some kind of sideways consolidation like the diamond pattern on Plungers Dow 1929-32 chart, followed by the last move down to $800 or whatever.
I had a type of median line chart that gave me a target of $780. I am trying to dig it out.
I never posted my gold bear market chart with the $780 target, so here it is. I cannot update this because I no longer use this particular charting service.
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/re-visiting-old-chart-with-gold-target.html